Serbian day-ahead electricity prices increased by around €34/MWh for Sept. 1 delivery, with stronger regional demand and the continued absence of Romanian nuclear generation tightening the Southeast European market. Serbia’s SEEPEX market cleared at €166.25/MWh, up from roughly €132/MWh in the previous session.
Across the monitored markets, Romania settled at €177.28/MWh, Hungary at €176.74/MWh, Bulgaria at €174.59/MWh, and Greece at €174.68/MWh. Montenegro remained lower at €158.50/MWh, while North Macedonia cleared at €148.46/MWh.
Regional demand lifts net imports as Romania’s nuclear output stays offline
Regional demand rose by around 2.4 GW day on day to approximately 33.27 GW. That increase lifted net imports across the monitored Southeast European markets to about 2.87 GW.
Romania alone required around 1.03 GW of net imports, with nuclear output at zero. The Romanian shortfall has become one of the principal drivers of regional trading conditions.
Cernavodă typically provides a large block of low-carbon baseload supply, and its absence increases Romania’s reliance on coal, gas, hydro, renewable generation and cross-border imports. The resulting import needs can tighten pricing in Hungary and Bulgaria because both markets are important potential suppliers.
Hourly price shape and forward indications point to evening tightness
The hourly price curve remains the strongest signal for market conditions, with Hungarian electricity reaching around €276.50/MWh. Romania climbed to approximately €283/MWh around the evening peak.
The pattern supports a structural premium for electricity available after solar generation falls, while daily baseload averages around €175/MWh mask weaker prices during renewable-heavy hours and higher values after sunset. The same price shape is improving the economics of batteries, reservoir hydro and flexible gas generation.
It is also weakening realised revenues of standalone solar projects that produce most heavily during lower-priced periods. Serbia’s rise narrows the large discount to Hungary seen in earlier sessions, when Serbia traded more than €40/MWh below HUPX despite remaining a net importer.
For Sept. 1, the differential narrowed to roughly €10.50/MWh, indicating stronger transmission of Central European scarcity into SEEPEX as regional demand increased.
Tightness reflected in forward prices; hydrology and nuclear availability remain key variables
Forward markets also reflect continued tightness, with Hungarian Week 37 power indicated around €175.50/MWh. October traded near €181/MWh.
The indications suggest traders do not expect the regional premium to disappear immediately. Hydrology remains weak, Romania’s nuclear availability stays uncertain, and evening demand is expected to become harder to cover as solar production declines into autumn.
Additional wind output could soften prices on individual days, while recovery at nuclear plants including Kozloduy and Paks provides some support. The wider structure is unchanged: Southeast Europe is adding large amounts of renewable capacity without an equivalent volume of flexible supply.
The Sept. 1 market reinforces a pattern seen during August, with rapid shifts between renewable-driven surplus and severe evening scarcity tied to nuclear availability, hydrology and cross-border flows.