Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most Southeast European markets for Friday delivery, with Serbia and Greece among the biggest decliners. The move coincided with stronger solar and wind forecasts alongside largely stable regional consumption. Lower regional imports also featured in the day-ahead price picture, while the gap between Central and Western European prices widened.
Day-ahead price changes in key SEE markets
Hungary’s HUPX base price decreased by €16.8/MWh to €179.78/MWh. Romania fell by €20.9/MWh to €175.92/MWh, while Bulgaria dropped €23.9/MWh to €169.02/MWh. Greece recorded a sharper decline of €33.3/MWh to €159.57/MWh.
Serbia posted the lowest price among the main SEE markets at €149.76/MWh, down €35.2/MWh from the previous session. This left SEEPEX at a €30.02/MWh discount to HUPX. Slovenia and Croatia settled at around €169/MWh.
Montenegro closed at €176.41/MWh and North Macedonia at €156.42/MWh. Albania moved against the regional direction, rising €7.9/MWh to €181.57/MWh, slightly above Hungary’s level.
Italy remained the most expensive adjacent market at €211.17/MWh, while Germany recorded a substantially lower price of €88.95/MWh. The contrasting movements widened the HUPX-Germany day-ahead spread to €90.82/MWh, nearly €28/MWh higher than in the previous session.
Hungary also maintained a €20.21/MWh premium over Greece, reflecting continued divergence between Western European and SEE power prices despite the broader regional decline.
Renewable forecasts and import flows
The expected increase in renewable generation was identified as the main bearish influence on Friday’s SEE power markets. Forecast solar output across the monitored region rose by about 1,154 MW day on day to 7,122 MW, while wind generation increased by 318 MW to 2,375 MW.
Forecast electricity consumption remained virtually unchanged at 32,689 MW, only 29 MW above the previous day’s level. The price decline was also linked to expectations of reduced reliance on imports.
Net HU+SEE imports fell to 1,954 MW from 2,637 MW. Inflows from the Austrian and Slovak direction dropped by 861 MW to 2,888 MW.
At the same time, exports towards Italy increased to 1,279 MW from 1,052 MW, keeping a south-to-west flow despite Italy’s higher prices relative to the region.
Hourly volatility on HUPX and SEEPEX
Even with lower average prices, hourly market outcomes remained volatile across both systems cited in the report. On HUPX, Friday prices fell to as low as €51.1/MWh around hour 14 before rising to €304.1/MWh in hour 21.
The resulting intraday range on HUPX was €253/MWh between hour 14 and hour 21. Serbia showed a similar pattern on SEEPEX, though less extreme.
SEEPEX prices dropped to a minimum of €69.9/MWh around hour 13 and then increased to €244.9/MWh in hour 21 on Friday delivery day.
Serbia’s base price of €149.76/MWh remained above the seven-day average of €142.2/MWh despite the steep day-on-day decline from the prior session.
Forward curve moves and commodity support
The forward curve presented a less uniformly bearish picture than spot pricing for Friday delivery. Hungary’s Week 37 contract rose by €4.5/MWh to €180.50/MWh, while Week 38 declined by €5/MWh to €178.50/MWh.
The October contract fell by €14/MWh to €186/MWh, while the calendar contract was unchanged at €141/MWh. The Week 37 Hungary-Germany forward spread widened by €3/MWh to €40.50/MWh.
The October spread narrowed by €8.5/MWh to €36/MWh on the forward curve figures cited in the report.
Lower fuel and carbon prices were also referenced as providing support for parts of the curve movement: CEGH gas fell by €1.2/MWh to €73.69/MWh and EU carbon allowances declined by €0.5/t to €83.53/t.
October and fourth-quarter gas forwards both dropped by €2/MWh to €73/MWh, while API 2 coal eased by €0.5/t to €136.5/t.
Evening supply sensitivity alongside renewable-led midday pricing
The market data indicated a shift away from scarcity-driven escalation toward a daily structure influenced more by renewables for Friday delivery day in Serbia and Greece levels cited in the report.
Serbia at €149.76/MWh and Greece at €159.57/MWh were described as relief from Thursday’s elevated levels in the figures provided.
The same dataset showed sharp evening increases reaching more than €240/MWh in Serbia and more than €300/MWh in Hungary during later hours of Friday delivery day.
The combination of high evening prices, wide HUPX-Germany spreads and reduced regional imports pointed to ongoing sensitivity tied to cross-border capacity and system flexibility for SEE markets within the reported conditions.