On 15 May 2026, power prices across Southeast Europe shifted into a more fragmented structure, with Central European markets staying above €110/MWh. Parts of the Western Balkans saw a sharp decline in prices amid weaker regional demand, lower import dependency and improved hydrological conditions. The market signal highlighted an extreme decoupling between SEEPEX Serbia and the broader HUPX-linked regional complex.
Serbian day-ahead prices fell to €65.79/MWh, down almost €49.5/MWh versus the previous day. Montenegro followed at €93.41/MWh, while North Macedonia traded at €83.18/MWh and Albania at €90.11/MWh. In contrast, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania and Hungary remained tightly coupled around the €117–120/MWh range.
Regional imports fall as Serbia’s local balance strengthens
The pricing fragmentation corresponded with a temporary divergence in regional power balances. Serbia saw stronger domestic generation alongside lower import dependency, while northern and core-linked markets remained exposed to tighter coupling with Italian and Central European pricing. Total regional imports dropped to 167 MW, down nearly 950 MW compared with the previous day.
This reduction pointed to a smaller need for external balancing across the SEE region. The shift in cross-border requirements coincided with the sharp price separation between Serbia and markets linked to HUPX and Italy. The data also showed that several SEE systems maintained export orientation toward neighboring deficit areas.
Hydro, coal and gas rise while wind output drops
The generation mix provided context for the move in prices. Regional hydro output stayed strong at 6,404 MW, representing around 24% of the power mix. Coal generation increased to 4,876 MW, while gas-fired generation rose to 3,736 MW.
At the same time, wind production fell by almost 1,800 MW day-on-day to 1,897 MW. Despite the wind decline, stronger hydro availability, reduced imports and softer demand offset the loss of wind generation. Regional consumption increased modestly to 28,694 MW.
SEEPEX hourly discounts widen Serbia versus HUPX spread
The Serbian market showed the clearest example of local balancing pressure overriding regional pricing convergence. SEEPEX hourly prices remained heavily discounted through most of the day, with a minimum of €30/MWh. Peak values reached only €121.1/MWh.
The Serbian spread versus HUPX widened dramatically during the session. The resulting arbitrage signal was described as among the strongest seen in recent weeks across the Balkan corridor. This pattern aligned with the wider separation between Serbia’s spot pricing and markets remaining near €117–120/MWh.
Commercial flows show exports from Hungary and Romania; Bulgaria supplies Greece
Cross-border commercial flow data indicated continued export orientation from parts of SEE toward neighboring deficit systems. Hungary maintained strong exports toward Croatia and Austria, while Romania exported heavily toward Hungary. Greece remained structurally import-dependent from Bulgaria.
The average commercial flows from Bulgaria into Greece were about 987 MW on a base load basis over the previous seven days. These flow patterns were consistent with reduced regional imports overall while some systems continued supplying deficit neighbors.
Italy stays highest priced; forward markets hold steady
Italy traded at €136.36/MWh, remaining the highest-priced market in the monitored area. This supported northwestern SEE markets including Slovenia and Croatia through coupled flow dynamics and export economics into Italy. The Italian price level also contrasted with Serbia’s much lower spot outcomes.
Forward markets were relatively stable despite spot volatility in Serbia and parts of the Balkans. Hungarian week-ahead baseload contracts traded around €117/MWh, while calendar 2026 power remained above €112/MWh. EUA carbon prices stayed near €75/t, and CEGH gas traded close to €49/MWh.
Thermal capacity stays active as Danube hydrology improves
The thermal system remained active across the region, with activated thermal generation capacity staying elevated through the week. Danube hydrology conditions improved materially, supporting hydro dispatch flexibility. This combination was described as relevant for balancing needs amid growing renewable penetration across SEE.
The expansion of solar generation was noted as continuing rapidly across Hungary, Romania, Greece and Serbia. The data also pointed to increasing internal fragmentation within SEE electricity pricing following earlier 2026 introduction of negative-price capable market structures.
Balkan renewable project milestones and EPS earnings update supply outlooks
The investment and infrastructure news flow included renewable buildout across multiple countries. Kosovo’s Zatriq wind farm (72 MW) was approaching commissioning, while Romania’s Green Breeze wind project (99 MW) entered final commissioning. Turkey continued expanding both wind generation and underground gas storage capacity.
Eps, Serbia’s electricity company, reported a quarterly profit of €129 million. The result was supported by stronger hydrology, higher coal production and reduced debt levels.
The daily data reflected a market increasingly shaped by short-duration renewable swings, hydro conditions and congestion-driven fragmentation rather than fuel-driven pricing alone. The widening divergence between local Balkan pricing and core European markets was highlighted as one of the defining structural characteristics of SEE electricity trading in 2026.