Regional electricity trading in South-East Europe has grown steadily as power exchanges have matured and cross-border market integration has improved. Yet early-2026 data points to a persistent liquidity gap versus Western and Central Europe, with consequences for price stability and the pace of exchange-based participation. For developers and grid planners, the trading backdrop matters because it shapes how quickly new renewable generation and storage projects can translate into bankable revenue signals.
How liquidity is measured across day-ahead and intraday markets
Power exchanges provide the platform for transparent trading in day-ahead and intraday sessions. Liquidity is assessed mainly through traded volumes and the number of active participants buying and selling electricity. When liquidity is high, prices tend to track market conditions more accurately because many counterparties compete through the auction process. When liquidity is low, individual trades can move prices more noticeably, increasing volatility that can complicate operational planning for utilities and industrial offtakers.
Croatia: large volumes with a smaller share of exchange growth
The Croatian power exchange illustrates how regional markets have scaled over the past decade. In February 2026, total trading reached approximately 905,983.6 MWh, with day-ahead activity at about 673,794.7 MWh and intraday volumes at roughly 232,188.9 MWh. This split indicates that exchange mechanisms are being used both for forward scheduling and for real-time balancing needs.
However, compared with the same month in the previous year, February 2026 volumes were about 15.4 percent lower. The decline suggests that market participants continue to rely heavily on bilateral contracts and long-term power purchase agreements rather than routing a larger share of supply through exchange platforms. As long as significant volumes remain outside public trading venues, exchange liquidity will stay constrained relative to the overall size of regional electricity markets.
Serbia: moderate month-on-month improvement amid annual weakness
On the Serbian power exchange, February 2026 day-ahead trading totaled approximately 414,520.1 MWh, equivalent to an average daily volume of roughly 14,804.3 MWh. Activity rose by about 2.4 percent versus the previous month, indicating some near-term resilience in exchange participation. At the same time, volumes were approximately 12.4 percent lower than in the same period a year earlier.
This pattern reinforces how sensitive regional trading remains to broader market conditions. It also highlights continued dependence on bilateral arrangements within Serbia’s electricity market structure, which limits how much liquidity can build on exchange infrastructure even when operational participation increases.
Price signals shift with seasonality and cross-border flows
Price dynamics provide another lens on how regional market depth translates into trading outcomes. On the Croatian exchange in February 2026, the average day-ahead base price was about €107.49 per megawatt-hour, while peak-hour prices averaged around €113.69 per megawatt-hour. Intraday prices averaged approximately €104.68 per megawatt-hour during the same period.
In Serbia, the average day-ahead base price fell to roughly €68.61 per megawatt-hour in February 2026, with peak prices averaging about €74.05 per megawatt-hour. Compared with January levels, Serbia’s base price dropped by approximately 41.9 percent and peak prices declined by around 45.7 percent month-on-month. Such swings point to sensitivity to seasonal demand patterns, hydrological conditions affecting hydroelectric generation, and variations in cross-border electricity flows.
Why liquidity remains lower: sector structure and transmission constraints
The modest depth observed across South-East European exchanges is linked to how electricity is organized in many Balkan markets. State-owned utilities often control both generation and retail supply and frequently use internal trading arrangements or long-term bilateral contracts instead of participating actively in exchange-based markets. As a result, a substantial portion of generation may never reach public platforms where transparent price discovery occurs.
Transmission infrastructure also shapes liquidity by influencing cross-border access for traders. Limited interconnection capacity between certain markets can restrict trading opportunities across borders, reducing the number of potential participants able to access a given exchange venue. When electricity cannot move freely due to transmission constraints, arbitrage becomes less effective and participation across neighbouring systems can fall—an issue that remains directly relevant for developers planning wind and solar output ramps alongside grid modernization works.
Integration measures: coupling effects and growing international participation
Despite structural limitations, European integration initiatives are beginning to strengthen exchange roles across South-East Europe. Market coupling initiatives have connected several regional exchanges with larger European trading platforms, enabling electricity to flow automatically toward higher-price markets across interconnected systems. These arrangements improve allocation efficiency while also encouraging greater exchange-based participation.
International trading companies have also increased their involvement as regional markets become more accessible. Global energy trading firms often add liquidity because they operate across multiple markets simultaneously, linking price signals from Western Europe with opportunities in South-East Europe. For project sponsors preparing EPC packages or contracting strategies for renewable assets and BESS facilities, this broader participation can support more consistent market signals—although it does not eliminate underlying liquidity gaps versus more mature hubs.
Intraday growth reflects renewable variability management
Intraday trading is expanding as renewable generation grows across Europe and supply becomes more volatile due to intermittent solar and wind output. Intraday markets allow traders to adjust positions closer to real time in response to changes in renewable generation forecasts. The increasing share of intraday activity seen across several South-East European exchanges reflects this operational shift toward finer scheduling granularity.
In Croatia specifically, February 2026 intraday trading reached approximately 232,188.9 MWh, showing that market participants are increasingly using real-time mechanisms to manage fluctuations between supply and demand. While intraday volumes remain smaller than day-ahead totals, their growing importance aligns with how battery energy storage systems are typically used operationally—to smooth variability and support balancing needs as forecast errors widen.
Implications for project planning and investment readiness
The early-2026 trading picture reflects a transitional phase: exchanges in Croatia and Serbia are increasingly relevant for price discovery and electricity allocation but still operate with lower liquidity than Western European benchmarks. Continued expansion of renewable generation alongside improvements in cross-border transmission capacity would be expected to support further growth in exchange-based trading depth over time.
For wind farms, utility-scale solar projects, BESS deployments, and grid modernization programs across South-East Europe, these market conditions influence how developers structure studies for grid connection readiness, plan procurement timelines for EPC preparation activities, and align permitting milestones with evolving dispatch realities under day-ahead and intraday regimes.
Broader industry takeaway: higher exchange activity alongside persistent liquidity constraints suggests that developers and investors should treat market integration progress—market coupling effects plus transmission upgrades—as a key input into risk assessment for revenue visibility and operational flexibility when executing renewable generation and storage projects.