Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe declined during week 33, with stronger photovoltaic output and weaker weekend demand reducing weekly baseload averages. Despite the fall in headline levels, supply conditions remained tight in the evening, with nuclear and hydropower constraints continuing to affect post-sunset availability. The resulting price pattern left the region at a significant premium versus western European markets.
Between 10 and 16 August, Hungary averaged about EUR 145/MWh, broadly in line with Croatia and Slovenia, while Romania averaged around EUR 143/MWh. In the integrated central Southeast European cluster, prices were roughly EUR 24–26/MWh above the broader European average. Bulgaria averaged about EUR 129/MWh, Serbia EUR 126/MWh, and Greece approximately EUR 102/MWh. Italy stayed the main high-price neighbour at around EUR 172/MWh, supporting exports from Southeast Europe.
Weekly averages fell sharply despite the elevated regional price level. Hungary’s prices dropped by around 7%, while Romania and Croatia declined by approximately 8%. Bulgaria fell by about 11%, Serbia by nearly 19%, and Greece by roughly 25%. The weekly figures masked tighter conditions later in the day.
Solar-driven midday declines and steep evening ramps
The market outcome increasingly reflected a separation between low-priced solar hours and higher-priced electricity after sunset. Strong photovoltaic generation pushed prices down around midday, followed by steep evening ramps when solar output fell away. On Thursday in Hungary, prices moved from roughly EUR 84/MWh during the solar-rich period to almost EUR 339/MWh in hour 21.
A similar intraday pattern was seen on Friday. Hungarian prices fell to around EUR 30/MWh around midday before rising above EUR 260/MWh during the evening. On Sunday, the spread widened further: Hungary traded at approximately EUR 27/MWh in the middle of the day before moving above EUR 206/MWh later in the session. Bulgaria shifted from about EUR 16/MWh to more than EUR 205/MWh, while Serbia ranged from roughly EUR 10/MWh to above EUR 180/MWh.
Greece recorded some of the strongest solar-driven compression, with several consecutive daytime hours trading close to zero before evening prices rose above EUR 200/MWh. In Hungary, peakload indicators became less representative as peakload prices fell below off-peak averages on several days. Conventional peak blocks captured solar-rich daytime hours, while off-peak periods included increasingly expensive evening intervals.
Nuclear and hydropower limits behind the evening premium
Nuclear and hydro constraints were cited as key drivers of the persistent premium during evening hours. In Hungary, reduced availability at the Paks nuclear power plant, which normally provides close to 2 GW and around half of domestic electricity production, continued to affect supply. Several Paks units were impacted by exceptionally low Danube water levels, although the gradual return of Unit 2 improved availability during the week.
During periods of tighter supply, Hungary relied heavily on imports, with imports approaching 2 GW on average early in the week. Romania faced similar issues at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant: Unit 1 was disconnected due to exceptionally low Danube levels, and operator Nuclearelectrica initiated a controlled shutdown of Unit 2 on 13 August. With both Cernavodă reactors offline, about 1.4 GW of low-variable-cost nuclear capacity was removed from Romania’s system.
The loss of nuclear output increased reliance on coal, hydropower, renewable generation and imports, particularly when demand was elevated. In Serbia, hydrological conditions remained weak as generation at Đerdap 1 ran at about 20% of normal levels and Đerdap 2 operated at around 30%. Serbian utility EPS therefore relied on market purchases to cover part of domestic demand.
Tight coupling across central markets and cross-border flows
Tight coupling across central markets and cross-border flows
The four-market cluster comprising Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia maintained strong price convergence throughout week 33. On six of seven days, the spread between the highest and lowest prices within this cluster remained below approximately
The close coupling limited sustained country-to-country spreads within the central Southeast Europe block, while larger differentials persisted between central markets and Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Italy. Cross-border electricity flows continued to act as a balancing mechanism: Hungary imported close to
Tight coupling across central markets and cross-border flows
The four-market cluster comprising Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia maintained strong price convergence throughout week 33. On six of seven days, the spread between the highest and lowest prices within this group stayed below approximately
The close coupling limited sustained country-to-country spreads within the central SEE block, while larger differentials persisted between central markets and Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Italy. Cross-border electricity flows continued to provide balancing support: Hungary imported close to
Tight coupling across central markets and cross-border flows
The four-market cluster comprising Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia maintained strong price convergence throughout week 33. On six of seven days, the spread between the highest and lowest prices within this group remained below approximately EUR 3/MWh.
This close linkage limited sustained country-to-country spreads inside central SEE, while bigger differentials continued between central markets and Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Italy. Cross-border electricity flows remained an important balancing mechanism as well: Hungary imported close to EUR 2 GW during parts of early week before stronger renewables improved overall regional balance.
By Wednesday, higher wind and solar generation shifted the combined SEE system toward a small net-export position even though Hungary itself remained a significant importer. Italy continued to draw power from the region because its price level was structurally higher; exports toward Italy exceeded EUR 1 GW during parts of the week.
Gas-carbon cost floor alongside forward price signals
A thermal generation floor was supported by gas and carbon prices remaining relatively high. Central European gas traded at approximately EUR 57–62/MWh while EU carbon allowances were around EUR 82–83/t. These levels imply short-run generation costs for modern gas-fired plants broadly consistent with central SEE baseload prices near EUR 140–160/MWh.
The cost floor did not account for evening prices above EUR 250–300/MWh. The source data attributed those spikes to scarcity of flexible generation, transmission constraints and rapid withdrawal of solar output after sunset rather than changes in headline baseload costs alone.
The Hungarian forward curve also pointed to elevated regional power costs beyond spot pricing. Week 34 traded around EUR 157/MWh late in the week while September contracts were near EUR 161/MWh; this left Hungary about EUR 25–27/MWh above comparable German contracts.
Easing Week 33 averages followed by Monday rebound bids
The day-ahead outlook for Monday,
Easing Week 33 averages followed by Monday rebound bids
The early day-ahead indications for Monday, 17 August suggested a recovery after weekend declines. Hungarian day-ahead power rebounded to around EUR 184/MWh while Slovenia and Croatia were both near EUR 181/MWh; Romania was around EUR 173/MWh. Bulgaria rose to approximately EUR 170/MWh as Greece reached about EUR 153/MWh.
The rebound was described as consistent with week 33’s lower baseload averages being driven primarily by stronger renewable generation alongside weaker weekend demand rather than a fundamental improvement in regional supply balance. For short-term trading in Southeast Europe, attention shifted toward how solar-rich hours diverged from evening pricing rather than only tracking baseload direction.
Nuclear availability in Hungary and Romania, Danube hydrology, wind forecasts and cross-border transmission capacity were identified as key variables shaping the evening curve alongside ongoing photovoltaic expansion that continued to push down daytime prices. The changing structure also supported intraday spreads as near-zero midday prices paired with evening settlements above EUR 200/MWh.