Regional electricity markets in Southeast Europe fell sharply for delivery on 20 May 2026, with nearly all major spot exchanges recording double-digit daily declines. The move coincided with higher renewable output, rising temperatures, and shifts in cross-border import dynamics across the region.
Southern markets see the largest day-on-day declines
Montenegro’s BELEN exchange dropped to €56.15/MWh, down more than €52/MWh versus the previous session. Serbia’s SEEPEX fell to €63.79/MWh, declining by more than €59/MWh day-on-day. Greece’s HENEX also corrected to €67.26/MWh amid softer regional balancing conditions and improved solar availability.
Hungary’s HUPX base price settled at €106.98/MWh, still above most SEE markets despite a daily fall of almost €35/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM closed at €103.04/MWh, Bulgaria’s IBEX at €102.44/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP at €97.46/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX at €98.16/MWh. Italy remained the structural premium market at €123.03/MWh, reflecting continued north-south export flows across the Balkans.
Renewables recovery and warmer weather drive the correction
The regional decline was linked to improving renewable conditions. Forecast solar generation across the SEE region rose to 5,848 MW, while wind output increased to 3,994 MW, adding more than 2.3 GW day-on-day.
Temperatures moved toward seasonal norms, reducing heating-related load pressure and easing balancing needs. Weather forecasts for Serbia, Montenegro, Greece, Romania and Hungary indicated additional warming through the week.
Generation mix shifts toward solar and hydro
Generation structure data showed hydro as the largest source at 27% of regional supply, followed by solar at 20%. Nuclear accounted for 12%, gas for 14%, and coal for only 18%.
The higher solar share compressed midday pricing, particularly in Greece, Slovenia and Serbia, where intraday solar effects were described as increasingly visible. Several exchanges also recorded deep midday price drops followed by strong evening recovery ramps, especially in Greece, Romania and Slovenia.
Demand lower and imports swing to net exports
Total regional generation fell to 26,803 MW, down more than 1.3 GW day-on-day. The reduction was offset by lower demand and a significant decrease in import dependency.
Net regional imports shifted to -894 MW, compared with +924 MW one day earlier. Cross-border flow data indicated Hungary continued importing heavily from Austria and Slovakia, while Greece maintained strong import demand from northern neighbors.
The same flow dataset showed exports from Romania toward Hungary and Serbia continuing. Bulgaria was also described as a significant transit corridor toward Greece and Turkey.
Forward prices remain elevated; gas and carbon stay steady
Despite the spot market correction, forward prices were described as relatively elevated versus seasonal norms. Hungarian week-ahead power traded around €98/MWh, while calendar 2026 contracts remained above €112/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas traded around €52.78/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances rose to approximately €75/t. The carbon level was cited as continuing to affect coal-fired generation economics across SEE markets.
Serbia’s spot decline reflects softer pricing and reduced import pressure
The report attributed Serbia’s SEEPEX move toward about €64/MWh to softer regional prices alongside higher renewable inflows from neighboring systems and lower import pressure.
The same dataset noted that Serbia remains exposed to future balancing volatility due to growing renewable integration and limited domestic flexibility capacity. It also highlighted widening daytime versus evening price divergence supporting merchant renewable-plus-storage trading models.
Nuclear projects and offshore wind plans sit alongside decarbonisation pressures
The broader regional context included Greece’s offshore wind acceleration plans and Romania’s nuclear refurbishment program at Cernavoda. Turkey’s nuclear expansion incentives and Serbia’s continuing oil and gas upstream investments were also referenced as part of concurrent system management priorities.
The report linked the overall market shift to stronger renewables, higher carbon prices, volatile import patterns, and expanding transmission integration across Southeast Europe.