Week 23 showed how conventional generation remains required when electricity demand rises and wind output weakens across Southeast Europe. Regional thermal generation increased 24.5% week on week to 4.22 TWh. Coal, lignite and gas-fired plants were used to balance a tighter system.
Week 23 thermal generation increase
The largest driver was Türkiye, where thermal output more than doubled. Turkish thermal generation rose 103.2% to 2.03 TWh. Coal generation increased 55.7%, while gas-fired output jumped 278.1%.
The change in Türkiye followed a 31.0% surge in Turkish electricity demand. The system still needed a large conventional response even as solar and hydro output were stronger.
Country-level changes in thermal output
Greece also increased thermal generation during the same period, with lignite output up 66.2%. Serbia recorded higher thermal production as well. Romania increased thermal output by 5.2%, supported by stronger gas-fired generation.
Italy moved in the opposite direction, with thermal generation down 16.7%. The decline was mainly linked to lower gas-fired production, although Italy remained the region’s highest-priced market at €128.09/MWh.
Balancing role for coal, lignite and gas
The market impact reflected that renewable growth has not removed thermal generation from the price stack in Southeast Europe. Instead, thermal generation is needed at different times as conditions change. Coal, lignite and gas increasingly provide balancing during evening ramps, weak-wind periods, hydro shortfalls and high-demand weeks.
This affects how thermal assets are used in the market, shifting them toward system security and marginal pricing rather than only baseload volume.
Fuel costs and policy exposure for thermal units
Gas prices near €50/MWh keep gas-fired power expensive in the region’s market conditions described for Week 23. Lignite and coal remain important in several Southeast Europe systems, but they carry carbon and policy risks. Thermal units can earn value during tight hours while their long-term role is exposed to decarbonisation, emissions costs, plant age and regulatory pressure.
Transition timing tied to system flexibility needs
The transition risk described for Southeast Europe is two-sided: retiring thermal capacity too quickly can create security-of-supply problems and price spikes, while keeping it too long can increase carbon exposure and reduce investment in flexibility. The region’s markets are still working to manage this balance under EU climate policy alignment requirements.
The same Week 23 conditions were cited as evidence that simplified transition narratives do not match operational needs. When wind fell by 15.5% while demand rose by 8.2%, conventional plants still carried the system.
The question raised is how quickly batteries, hydro flexibility, demand response and interconnectors can reduce the need for thermal ramping under similar conditions. Until then, thermal generation remains the backstop, setting the price floor in tight hours and supporting reliability while exposing the region to fuel and carbon risk.