During Week 23, Italy held the premium position among Southeast Europe power markets. The Italian weekly day-ahead average increased by 3.7% to €128.09/MWh. The level was reported as higher than neighbouring SEE markets and well above Türkiye’s structurally low price level.
Week 23 price levels across Southeast Europe
The spread between Italy and other regional markets was described as significant. Greece averaged €89.25/MWh, while Serbia reached €99.63/MWh, Croatia €99.29/MWh, Bulgaria €100.83/MWh, Romania €102.23/MWh, and Hungary €103.15/MWh. On that basis, Italy traded at a premium of nearly €39/MWh to Greece and around €27–29/MWh versus several Balkan markets clustered near €100/MWh.
Italy’s import position alongside the high-price signal
Italy continued to act as a major destination for regional power flows where interconnector capacity allows. Net imports fell by 14.1% during the week, but Italy remained the largest net importer in the SEE region. Net imports were reported at 950.91 GWh.
The combination of lower imports with the highest price level was highlighted as consistent with a structurally tight Italian market. This setup maintained conditions for cross-border trading strategies linked to the Italy price premium.
Export optionality and tradability limits from interconnector constraints
For generators in Balkan markets, the Italy premium was described as creating export optionality. Assets including hydro, lignite, gas, wind and solar located in neighbouring markets could capture value when export routes are available and congestion does not block flows.
For traders, the Italy-Balkans spread supports opportunities related to scheduling, hedging, transmission rights and congestion management. However, full price convergence was described as not guaranteed because interconnector constraints, scheduled flow limits, internal bottlenecks and market coupling conditions influence how much trading can be achieved.
The Week 23 flow map was cited as showing active regional exchanges, while persistent price differences indicated that physical and commercial constraints remained relevant.
Gas-linked marginal pricing and fuel risk in Italy
Italy’s price structure was also linked to fuel risk through exposure to gas-linked marginal pricing. This exposure was noted even in weeks when gas-fired generation falls.
With TTF prices near €49/MWh, Italian power was said to retain a fuel-risk premium that can widen against markets with stronger hydro or lignite resources or cheaper domestic supply.
Implications for regional consumers and grid investment priorities
The high-price signal from Italy was described as relevant for Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and the Western Balkans. It can affect the economics of flexible generation and cross-border trading while also exposing import-dependent consumers to regional price volatility.
The same spread benefiting exporters can raise costs for industrial offtakers if domestic markets converge upward. Separately, persistent spreads were described as strengthening the investment case for interconnectors and grid reinforcement by indicating economic value for transmission capacity.
Projects aimed at increasing transfer capability between lower-cost Balkan zones and higher-priced Italian or Central European markets were cited as potentially unlocking trading gains, improving security of supply and reducing price fragmentation.