April 2026 brought one of the sharpest month-on-month corrections in Central and South East European power markets since late summer 2025. Wholesale electricity prices across the HU+SEE region fell materially as weaker gas prices, deteriorating fossil-fired generation economics, lower consumption and record solar production reshaped trading conditions.
The regional benchmark on HUPX settled at €96.55/MWh, down from €117.35/MWh in March. That equated to a 17.7% month-on-month decline. Most exchanges in the SEE area reported similar reductions, including Croatian CROPEX at €90.42/MWh, Slovenian BSP at €88.79/MWh, Bulgarian IBEX at €90.99/MWh, Serbian SEEPEX at €91.51/MWh, and Greek HENEX at €88.72/MWh.
The correction pushed regional prices to their lowest levels since August 2025. Even with the broad fall in outright prices, the structural spread between Hungary and Germany stayed elevated. The HU-DE spread averaged €18.04/MWh, slightly above March levels, while congestion and FBMC constraints continued to affect price convergence between CWE and SEE.
Hungary–Germany spread remains elevated despite lower monthly prices
The report said DE-HU MaxExchange capacity remained among the weakest levels recorded since 2024, despite marginal improvements. This contributed to persistent divergence between the two market areas even as monthly averages declined across the region.
Solar output drives negative midday pricing on HUPX and Germany
A defining feature of April was the acceleration of solar cannibalisation across SEE markets. Peak regional solar output averaged 8,272 MW, up 15.6% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year, reaching a new April record.
The higher solar volumes changed intraday price patterns. On HUPX, average prices during H14-H15 turned negative, and April recorded 84 negative-price hours, compared with 18 hours in March. Germany registered 123 negative-price hours.
The resulting price structure increasingly separated depressed midday solar periods from higher-cost evening balancing conditions. The report also highlighted that curve shape became more important than the monthly average for assessing market conditions.
Evening critical-hour pricing stays high while solar suppresses daytime values
Evening critical-hour pricing remained elevated in April. On HUPX, the market averaged around €209/MWh in H21, reflecting continued value for flexible generation, balancing capability and storage arbitrage during bearish outright conditions.
Fossil generation falls as coal and gas economics deteriorate
Fossil-fired generation economics weakened sharply alongside the price correction. Coal generation across the region fell by nearly 2,000 MW month-on-month, while gas-fired generation dropped by approximately 2,200 MW. Coal output reached the lowest April level recorded since at least 2016, according to the report.
The analysis linked part of the collapse in non-EU coal generation to operational impacts of CBAM. Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were singled out for visibly weaker coal-fired output and worsening export positions.
Serbia net exports weaken versus April 2025 amid lower generation across fuels
Serbia’s power balance deteriorated materially compared with April 2025. The country’s net export position weakened by around 440 MW year-on-year, driven by 200 MW lower coal-fired generation, 60 MW lower hydro output and 75 MW lower gas-fired generation.
The report said SEEPEX pricing is no longer determined only by domestic production costs or hydrology. It pointed to CBAM-related export distortions, declining coal profitability, negative-price spillovers from EU solar oversupply, FBMC congestion constraints, Ukrainian import demand and evening ramping scarcity as factors shaping outcomes.
The review also highlighted exports toward Ukraine and Moldova. While described as transit-oriented flows, they tighten regional supply-demand balances and increase dependence on imports from CORE and Italy.
Nuclear-adjacent renewables: hydro declines and wind falls as solar rises
Hydro generation weakened in April as well, declining by 1,105 MW month-on-month and dropping below average seasonal levels for the first time in five months. Wind generation fell by around 14% month-on-month, partially offsetting the solar surge.
The report described a system increasingly reliant on solar-heavy midday structures while facing greater vulnerability during evening ramping hours. It cited a structural business case for BESS deployment, flexible gas generation, ancillary services, balancing assets and interconnection optimisation.
Austrian gas prices ease but Clean Spark Spreads remain deeply negative
Gas markets eased during April. Austrian CEGH spot gas prices averaged €47.17/MWh, down 11.3% month-on-month, though still substantially above April 2025 levels.
The report said lower gas prices did not improve gas-fired generation economics. Clean Spark Spreads remained deeply negative due to weak daytime power prices, elevated EUA costs and severe solar price suppression.
EUA costs stay high as gas plants post base-load losses under current structures
The analysis reported base-load losses for high-efficiency gas plants of approximately €23.1/MWh, after fuel and carbon costs. Low-efficiency units lost nearly €38.7/MWh. Peak-product economics were described as even worse.
The report characterised this as a signal for future SEE thermal investment strategy under current market structures dominated by solar oversupply and high carbon costs. It said merchant gas generation without capacity remuneration, balancing revenues or ancillary-service monetisation is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.
EUA prices rise; CBAM reduces cross-border trading economics in Q1 2026
EUA prices remained elevated through April, averaging €73.8/t, about 5.5% higher than March levels. The CBAM section cited early operational indications of how the mechanism is reshaping Western Balkan electricity trading.
Citing Energy Community Secretariat assessments included in the review, commercial cross-border electricity exchanges declined by roughly 25%