SEE power prices rose sharply in Week 19 (04–10 May 2026), with the regional price structure moving back above €100/MWh in almost all markets except Türkiye. The change coincided with lower wind generation, higher demand, stronger thermal dispatch and elevated CO₂/gas risk premiums tied to geopolitical stress around the Strait of Hormuz.
Price levels by market and weekly changes
Italy recorded the highest weekly price at €131.47/MWh, followed by Romania at €123.34/MWh, Hungary at €122.62/MWh, and Croatia at €117.37/MWh. Bulgaria averaged €111.41/MWh, while Serbia was at €111.36/MWh. Greece finished the week at €106.30/MWh, and Türkiye remained structurally detached at €16.14/MWh.
Serbia’s weekly price increased by 29.25%, though the largest regional moves were reported in Hungary, Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania. The analysis indicated that Central European tightness fed into the SEE price stack during the week. Despite a very large percentage increase, Türkiye’s absolute price level stayed far below other markets.
Demand growth and differences across countries
Total demand increased by 4.34% week-on-week to 15,191 GWh. The rise was led by Italy and Türkiye, according to the weekly figures. Italy added 416.3 GWh, while Türkiye increased by 253.6 GWh.
Serbia’s demand fell 3.12%, which contributed to a comparatively smaller price reaction versus neighbouring markets. The week’s demand pattern therefore differed across the region, with some systems adding load while Serbia reduced consumption.
Renewables shortfall shifts dispatch needs toward thermal units
The report pointed to a renewable generation shortfall as a key driver of the higher price environment. Variable RES output declined by 19.0% to 2,808.6 GWh, with wind generation down by 32.9%. Türkiye accounted for more than 420 GWh of lost wind output, while Croatia and Greece also recorded sharp declines.
Solar output was more stable, falling by only 6.0%. Even with solar holding up relative to wind, the reduction in variable RES availability increased residual demand for thermal generation across SEE.
Thermal output rises; gas-fired generation leads the change
Total thermal generation increased by 39.2%, reaching 4,835.9 GWh. Gas-fired generation rose by 66.6%, while coal and lignite increased by 11.1%. The week’s dispatch pattern reflected a shift toward gas-fired marginal supply as renewables weakened.
Italy and Türkiye carried most of the increase, while Greece and Hungary also relied more heavily on gas-fired output. In contrast, Serbia moved differently: thermal generation was lower and gas-fired output fell sharply, but Serbia still imported more electricity than before.
Southeast Europe cross-border flows and Serbia’s import sensitivity
Net SEE imports declined 4.6%, falling to 1,036.6 GWh. Even with overall tightening, Serbia’s import balance more than doubled during the week, according to the analysis. Romania’s net imports surged by 216.0%.
Greece and Bulgaria strengthened export positions, supported by conventional generation and regional spreads reported in the weekly assessment. The data also indicated that Serbia’s market outcome remained sensitive to import flows even when domestic demand decreased.
Tight gas conditions remain linked to risk premiums and storage dynamics
The gas market component was described as less directional than power prices but still risk-loaded. TTF futures averaged €45.34/MWh, nearly flat week-on-week, while remaining exposed to Middle East risk and LNG routing uncertainty tied to geopolitical stress around the region.
The report also highlighted slower EU storage injections as a forward-price support factor. EU gas injections have been running around 20% below last year, with inventories about 25% below the five-year average.
Evolving early-summer power-market volatility signals for participants
The weekly assessment said SEE is entering a more volatile early-summer pattern, where weak wind can quickly push prices above €100/MWh. It also reiterated that gas remains the marginal driver for pricing during such conditions.
The analysis further stated that Serbia’s position is sensitive to imports even when domestic demand falls. For generators, it noted an improved price signal during the week, while suppliers and industrial buyers were advised that hedge coverage remains relevant ahead of summer cooling demand and gas-storage risk visibility.