Serbia was among the Southeast Europe markets where electricity prices eased in Week 23, even as regional demand increased. The Serbian weekly day-ahead average fell 5.8% week on week to €99.63/MWh. Over the same period, SEE electricity demand rose by 8.2%, while regional thermal generation increased sharply.
Serbian demand moved in the opposite direction to the broader region. Electricity demand in Serbia declined by 1.0%, contrasting with the regional increase. At the same time, hydro generation in Serbia rose by 30.8%, and thermal output also increased. The combined effect provided additional supply support for the domestic system.
Southeast Europe demand and generation changes in Week 23
While Serbia’s price outcome differed from peers, SEE overall tightened during Week 23. Regional demand increased, while variable renewables fell by 8.9%. Wind output declined by 15.5%, and net imports rose by 9.1%. Against that backdrop, Serbia’s balance of demand and generation contributed to a different pricing pattern.
The Serbian market avoided the upward pressure seen elsewhere in the region. The source data links this to lower domestic demand alongside higher hydro output and increased thermal availability. Similar upward pressure was reported for markets including Bulgaria, Italy, and Greece. Serbia’s weekly outcome therefore diverged from the regional direction.
Role of hydro and lignite-based thermal generation
Hydro availability was highlighted as a key factor for Serbian day-ahead pricing. Water conditions can affect pricing because hydro units support flexible dispatch. Higher hydro output can reduce reliance on higher-cost imports or thermal ramping during periods of regional stress. In Week 23, the reported rise in hydro generation aligned with lower local prices.
Thermal generation also remained central to power-market stability in Serbia. The country relies heavily on lignite-based generation, which provides dispatchable output but is subject to long-term carbon and environmental constraints. In Week 23, stronger thermal availability supported the price decline. The data also notes that outages, maintenance, or coal-supply issues could reverse that effect in later weeks.
Implications for pricing levels and cross-border trading
The weekly average level placed Serbia near the middle of the regional range in Week 23. At just below €100/MWh, Serbia was described as cheaper than Italy, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. The same comparison placed Serbia still far above