Serbia recorded a sharp jump in short-term electricity stress in Southeast Europe during Week 27, following a rise in day-ahead prices. The week of 29 June–5 July saw average day-ahead power prices in Serbia reach EUR 139.93/MWh. This represented a 26.3% week-on-week increase. Serbia traded above Greece and Bulgaria on the same basis.
Price levels versus neighbouring markets
In absolute terms, Serbia remained below Romania, Hungary and Croatia during the period. Romania posted average day-ahead prices of EUR 164.31/MWh, while Hungary averaged EUR 162.04/MWh. Croatia reached EUR 142.57/MWh. The Serbian price level, despite being lower than those three markets, pointed to tighter conditions domestically compared with Greece and Bulgaria.
Cross-border flows shift toward imports
The price increase was accompanied by a change in cross-border electricity flows. Serbia moved from a marginal net import position of 7 GWh in Week 26 to a net import of 90 GWh in Week 27. This shift indicated greater reliance on imported electricity during the week. It also increased exposure to regional supply conditions and wholesale price movements.
Lignite-fired generation absence reduces domestic supply
Domestic supply conditions weakened during the same period, according to the report cited in the market assessment. Thermal generation declined sharply due to the absence of lignite-fired output. With lignite described as a key source of baseload generation in Serbia, lower production reduced domestic supply. That reduction increased dependence on imported electricity, particularly when demand was higher.
High-price corridor affects import costs
Serbia’s market position is linked to its placement within the Romania–Hungary–Croatia high-price corridor. During the week, elevated day-ahead prices were recorded across neighbouring markets, including Romania at EUR 164.31/MWh, Hungary at EUR 162.04/MWh, and Croatia at EUR 142.57/MWh. As Serbian import requirements rose, they coincided with these higher regional price levels. That limited access to lower-cost electricity from nearby markets.
Renewables and evening peak demand remain key variables
Weather and renewable generation conditions were also identified as important drivers for near-term market dynamics. Stronger wind production or improved hydro availability across Southeast Europe could raise regional supply and reduce import costs. In contrast, weak renewable output would leave Serbia more reliant on imported thermal generation. The report highlighted evening peak hours as a period when solar production declines while demand remains elevated.
Lignite availability and import flows to be watched
The near-term question for market participants is whether Serbia’s thermal generation recovers in coming weeks. A return of lignite-fired output would likely reduce import dependence and ease upward pressure on wholesale prices. If thermal availability remains constrained, Serbia is expected to continue supporting higher electricity prices in the region. The outlook also points to monitoring lignite availability, cross-border import flows, regional price spreads, and evening peak prices.