Türkiye’s wholesale power market moved differently from the rest of Southeast Europe in May 2026, according to Electricity.Trade’s trading analysis. The country’s monthly spot average fell to €11.17/MWh, down 39.49% from April and 80.18% versus May 2025. While other regional markets recorded higher prices, Türkiye became the most significant pricing outlier in the comparison.
Electricity prices across selected markets were €119.35/MWh in Italy, €109.56/MWh in Romania, €106.51/MWh in Hungary and €101.07/MWh in Bulgaria. The gap placed Türkiye among the widest spread points in Southeast Europe for the month. Türkiye traded nearly €90/MWh below Bulgaria, around €78/MWh below Greece and more than €108/MWh below Italy.
Limits on transferring price differences across borders
The size of the differential created conditions that would typically be associated with a strong arbitrage opportunity. Electricity.Trade’s analysis also notes that the ability to capture value from cross-border price gaps is constrained by limited interconnection capacity. It cites transmission rights, market coupling arrangements and balancing requirements as factors affecting transferability.
As a result, Türkiye’s low prices sent an economic signal but only a limited share of that value could flow into neighbouring European markets. The analysis links this outcome to how physical and market mechanisms affect trade between systems with different price levels. Cross-border constraints therefore limited the extent to which regional pricing converged during May 2026.
Hydropower-led generation and weaker demand
Türkiye’s generation mix contributed to the pricing outcome in May 2026. Electricity production was led by 50.31% hydropower, followed by 19.68% renewables and 18.41% coal and lignite. Natural gas accounted for 11.35%, while oil made up 0.25%.
Economic conditions in the balancing of supply and demand also shifted during the month. Electricity demand declined by 5.09% compared with April, while renewable generation fell by 6.70%. The analysis attributes the main driver of the price decline to lower demand combined with abundant hydropower output.
Net exports and cross-border flows in May
Türkiye remained a net electricity exporter during May 2026, recording 255.00 GWh of net exports. Power exports reached 26.87 GWh to Greece, 44.01 GWh to Bulgaria and 184.12 GWh to Georgia. These flows supported regional trade activity during the month.
The volume of exports was not sufficient to significantly reduce the large price gap between Türkiye and neighbouring Southeast European markets, according to the analysis. This points to limited market integration effects despite cross-border trading volumes. The persistence of spread levels indicates that regional linkage did not translate into broad price alignment during May.
Ties with broader European power markets remain limited
The May 2026 outcome reflected both generation conditions and Türkiye’s comparatively limited integration with the broader European power market, per Electricity.Trade’s trading analysis. The sharp decline in spot prices was therefore associated with how interconnection capacity and transmission performance shape market outcomes across borders.
The analysis highlights cross-border interconnection capacity, regional market integration and efficient transmission infrastructure as key elements affecting tradability of extreme spreads. It also states that without stronger physical and regulatory links, even large price differentials remain only partially tradable across EU-linked electricity markets.