Variable renewable energy generation rose across Southeast Europe during Week 26, covering 22–28 June 2026, though the change varied by market. Total VRE output increased 11.7% week on week to 4.27 TWh. The improvement was driven mainly by wind, which climbed 32.4%, adding 457 GWh to the regional supply mix. Solar generation was broadly flat, falling slightly by 0.4%.
The largest contribution to the regional VRE increase came from Türkiye, where wind output rose sharply. Türkiye’s wind generation increased by 43.8%, lifting total variable renewables by 36.9% versus the prior week. Greece also saw a wind-led recovery, with wind generation up 57.5%. That rise more than offset a 5.6% decline in solar output.
Elsewhere, the direction of change differed between technologies and countries. Hungary and Bulgaria recorded more support from higher solar production during the week. Romania’s renewable generation remained broadly stable over the same period.
Wind and solar swings in key markets
The regional improvement did not translate into higher variable renewable output across all major markets. Croatia recorded a 25.4% decline in variable renewable generation, attributed primarily to weaker wind conditions. Italy also saw lower renewable output, with wind down 10.1% and solar down 5.2%. These shifts affected markets that were among the most expensive in the region during Week 26.
Croatia averaged €139.09/MWh, while Italy reached €144.67/MWh. The data indicated that stronger renewable performance at regional level does not automatically prevent local market tightness when generation falls in high-demand areas.
Timing of renewables versus demand peaks
The balance between wind and solar output shaped market conditions during the week. Solar generation provided support during daytime hours, but it had limited impact on the evening demand peak when consumption stayed elevated after solar output declined. Wind generation can contribute more during evening and overnight periods, while its variability can raise balancing requirements.
Croatia’s Week 26 outcome reflected how weaker wind availability can contribute to tighter conditions even when other renewable resources improve elsewhere in the system.
Implications for forecasting and project value
The latest figures also point to the growing importance of where and when renewable electricity is available for market participants. For traders, utilities and large consumers, country-specific and hourly renewable forecasts are becoming more relevant as system conditions depend on renewable timing and location. This includes situations where strong wind conditions in Türkiye and Greece do not necessarily ease constraints in markets such as Croatia or Italy.
For developers, the data reinforce that installed capacity alone is not sufficient as a measure of project value. Returns increasingly depend on generation timing, location, grid constraints, balancing requirements and how output aligns with periods of electricity scarcity. A wind project producing during high-demand evening hours may capture more value than a solar project focused on lower-priced midday periods, while hybrid renewable projects paired with battery storage can add flexibility to revenue profiles.
Week 26 showed renewables already play a major role in Southeast European electricity markets, with impacts that are becoming more complex as variability affects system stress and conventional flexibility needs.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy