During Week 03, covering 12–18 January 2026, TTF gas prices on the ICE market moved higher, indicating tighter conditions. February 2026 futures started on Monday, 12 January, at €30.25/MWh, the week’s lowest settlement. Prices then increased to €31.47/MWh on 13 January (+4.1%) and €31.81/MWh on 14 January (+1.1%).
On 15 January, momentum strengthened as February futures rose to €33.16/MWh (+4.2%). The move continued into Friday, 16 January, when the contract reached a peak of €36.88/MWh, up 11.2% day-on-day. Over the week, the average settlement price was €32.71/MWh, which was 16.6% higher than the previous week.
Drivers behind the Week 03 upward move
The rise in Week 03 was supported by forecasts pointing to colder weather later in January. European gas storage levels were described as relatively low, at around 50%. Additional factors included pressure from U.S. LNG export disruptions, potential supply uncertainties in Iran, and stronger Asian demand linked to a cold spell.
A temporary easing was recorded on 15 January after statements from the U.S. president reduced concerns over military tensions in the Middle East. That shift coincided with the market’s broader repricing during the week’s later sessions.
Starting storage levels and implications for refill demand
European gas storage entered 2026 at a weaker level than the previous year, with sites around 61% full at year-end 2025. At the same point in 2024, storage was reported at 72% full. The lower starting point was noted as increasing sensitivity to near-term conditions.
A colder-than-normal winter could raise withdrawals and require more substantial refill volumes later in the year. By contrast, a mild winter would reduce pressure during the summer injection season.
LNG inflows and seasonal spread signals
Current market signals were described as indicating a relatively comfortable outlook, supported by robust LNG inflows. Competition from Asia for spot cargoes was also described as lower than before. Seasonal spreads remained compressed, pointing to limited concern about summer supply tightness under normal weather conditions.
The start-of-year storage position was characterized as well-balanced but sensitive to changes in early-quarter weather. With inventories beginning 2026 at comparatively lower levels, conditions in the first quarter are expected to be key for shaping refill demand, price trends, and storage utilization through the rest of 2026.