Southeast European power exchanges saw a sharp recovery in day-ahead prices on Monday as industrial demand returned after the weekend. Regional power consumption increased by almost 3 GW, while renewable output eased from Sunday highs. Most benchmark prices moved back above €100/MWh, with Hungary again setting the highest level across Central and Southeast Europe.
On HUPX, the Hungarian day-ahead contract settled at €116.19/MWh, up more than €71/MWh from Sunday. Romania’s OPCOM market closed at €115.19/MWh. Croatia reached €111.07/MWh, Slovenia traded at €109.70/MWh, and Bulgaria settled at €104.37/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX remained comparatively lower at €88.14/MWh. Albania closed at just €56.86/MWh, supported by abundant hydro availability. The spread between Hungary and Serbia reflected the differing balance between demand, generation and cross-border needs across the region.
Weekday demand lifts prices as generation falls
The return of weekday industrial activity was the main driver behind the Monday price move. Regional demand rose to 28.5 GW, almost 3 GW higher than Sunday levels. Total generation declined by around 1.7 GW, tightening the supply-demand balance across the interconnected SEE region.
Renewables contributed to the tighter balance through lower output compared with Sunday. Hydro production fell by approximately 500 MW day-on-day, while solar generation dropped by nearly 850 MW. Wind output stayed subdued at just 582 MW, providing limited support during the evening peak load period.
Nuclear generation increased slightly to 4.1 GW, offsetting part of the renewable decline. The shift in generation levels affected how marginal units were valued during later hours of the trading day. With solar and hydro lower, thermal generation became more relevant for meeting demand ramps.
Generation mix and intraday scarcity pricing
The regional generation profile showed continued diversification across major fuel sources. Hydro remained the largest single source at 5.35 GW, followed by coal at 4.56 GW, solar at 4.58 GW, nuclear at 4.12 GW, and gas-fired generation at 2.98 GW. The reduction in solar and hydro output increased the marginal value of thermal generation during the evening ramp period.
Intraday price curves followed a pattern seen across several exchanges, with midday suppression linked to solar output followed by stronger pricing after sunset. Values accelerated sharply once solar production disappeared and thermal units became increasingly marginal. Hungary’s evening peak reached approximately €235/MWh.
Similar evening spikes were observed in Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Greece as conditions shifted away from solar generation. The timing of these moves aligned with periods when thermal capacity was required to cover demand as renewables fell off.
Cross-border flows, Serbia discount, and hydrology support
Cross-border flows underscored the role of interconnection capacity in balancing regional markets on Monday. Romania remained a major exporter toward Hungary, while Slovenia and Croatia continued electricity deliveries toward Italy. Structural import requirements in Italy supported premium pricing there.
Commercial flow data showed sustained exports from Slovenia into Italy averaging more than 500 MW. Serbia continued to trade as one of the more competitively priced markets in Southeast Europe, with a SEEPEX settlement of €88.14/MWh. That level left Serbia trading at discounts exceeding €25/MWh versus Hungary and Romania.
The discount was supported by strong domestic thermal and hydro availability, which limited import requirements. Serbia also functioned as both a balancing market and a transit corridor between Central Europe and the Western Balkans.
Hydrological conditions improved during the period supporting regional fundamentals for hydro generation. Danube river flows increased to approximately 6,043 cubic metres per second, above recent lows for Serbia, Romania and downstream Balkan systems. Improved hydrology was described as moderating upside price risks despite strengthening seasonal demand.
Forward prices, gas and carbon costs, and weather outlook
Forward markets showed a more cautious picture than spot trading levels on Monday. Hungarian Week 24 baseload contracts traded around €113/MWh, while equivalent German products were near €107/MWh. That left a premium of roughly €6–7/MWh for Central and Southeast European delivery.
Austrian CEGH gas futures remained close to €50/MWh. EU carbon allowances traded around €76.9/tCO₂, extending a downward trend in emissions costs. Lower carbon prices supported coal-fired competitiveness across Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania by reducing marginal production costs for thermal assets.
Toward the coming days, temperatures are forecast to rise across most of Southeast Europe. Serbia is expected to approach 24°C, while Greece and Montenegro remain near 26°C. Higher cooling demand is expected to maintain pressure on regional power systems during afternoon and evening peak periods.
The trading picture remained shaped by strong evening scarcity pricing, widening north-south spreads and reliance on cross-border balancing flows. Improving hydrology and falling carbon prices were noted alongside limited wind output and continued transmission constraints as summer approaches.