Southeast Europe is not the largest destination for global LNG, but it remains exposed to disruptions in international cargo flows. Around 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and more than 85% of those volumes normally head to Asian markets. If shipments through the strait are interrupted, the effects can reach SEE through gas pricing, LNG competition and power-market marginal costs.
Qatar is identified as a key supplier to Asia, so any interruption to Qatari LNG would require Asian buyers to seek alternative cargoes. Europe’s direct dependence on Qatari LNG has fallen to around 8% of total imports, but that does not remove exposure to global market repricing. In a scenario where Asian buyers bid more aggressively for available LNG, European buyers would also need to pay higher prices to secure supply.
LNG price pressure and benchmark gas levels
The report indicates that European benchmark gas prices may need to rise by 40–50% from current levels to secure sufficient LNG if disruptions to Qatari exports persist. During Week 23, TTF averaged €48.56/MWh, while the one-month forward was near €49.335/MWh. A move of that magnitude would be material for electricity pricing in markets where gas sets marginal costs.
US LNG is described as unable to quickly compensate for the shortfall. Export facilities were operating at approximately 94% utilisation, leaving limited spare capacity. As a result, the adjustment mechanism would be driven by price rather than immediate additional supply availability, with Europe competing for cargoes and pushing TTF higher.
LNG infrastructure links across Italy, Greece and Croatia
For SEE, the transmission of global LNG price changes is linked to multiple import systems affecting regional gas balances. Italy, Greece and Croatia have LNG import infrastructure that influences how supply is balanced across the area. During Week 23, LNG inflows to Greece recovered to 860.32 GWh, Italy received 2,836.03 GWh, and Croatia received 645.30 GWh.
The report frames these terminals as part of regional supply-security architecture rather than peripheral assets. Higher LNG prices associated with a disruption would therefore feed into regional gas availability and pricing signals. Those signals then carry into power markets where gas-fired generation is used for balancing.
Gas-fired generation effects on power markets
Higher LNG prices would translate into increased costs for gas-fired power generation. The impact is described as most relevant during evening peaks, low-wind periods and high-demand weeks. In Week 23, Turkish gas-fired power generation rose by 278.1%, while thermal generation across SEE increased by 24.5%.
If gas prices rise sharply, the cost of this balancing response would increase alongside them. The report also notes that industrial electricity buyers can face higher power prices even without direct gas exposure when gas-fired output sets marginal prices.
Industrial demand exposure and uneven market response
The report lists sectors that would be affected through electricity costs, hedging requirements and procurement risk: steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser, chemicals and data centres. It also indicates that the effect would not be uniform across all markets in SEE. Systems with stronger hydro or lignite availability may experience less immediate exposure than more gas-dependent configurations.
Because SEE markets are interconnected, price changes in hubs such as Italy or Greece can influence flows and spreads across the Balkans, including Hungary. In this context, higher regional gas and power prices can propagate beyond the immediate location of LNG imports.
Maritime chokepoints and regional electricity repricing
The report connects SEE energy security to global maritime chokepoints rather than only regional pipeline routes or local storage conditions. It highlights LNG cargo competition between Europe and Asia as a mechanism through which disruptions can reprice energy markets. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz does not need to land directly in the Balkans to affect Balkan electricity pricing.