Cross-border electricity flows were a decisive feature of Southeast Europe (SEE) trading in Week 25. Regional net imports fell by 20.4% to 1.03 TWh, while the reduction reflected a more complex balance across countries. Italy remained the largest net importer at 1.12 TWh, and Croatia increased net imports by 26.0%. Greece and Bulgaria expanded export positions, while Serbia shifted from net imports of 107 GWh to net exports of 21 GWh.
Regional balance and country-level net positions
The week’s flow pattern showed different directions of trade across the region. Italy’s role as a dominant importer continued, alongside rising Croatian net imports. Greece and Bulgaria deepened export positions, indicating tighter conditions on the demand side elsewhere in SEE. Serbia’s move into net exports marked a change in its cross-border supply-demand balance.
Price differentials across SEE markets
Average pricing diverged between export-oriented areas and higher-demand markets. Greece and Bulgaria traded at lower average prices, while Italy, Hungary, Romania and Croatia were materially higher. The pricing spread highlighted that the commercial outcome depended not only on where power was cheaper but also on whether it could be delivered to where it was needed. Delivery timing and cross-border access were therefore central to trading decisions.
Italy’s import pull and cross-border optionality
Italy’s import pull remained a key driver of regional trading dynamics. Its price reached €127.69/MWh, creating a premium versus most SEE markets. Hungary, Romania and Croatia also moved into higher-price territory, supporting the value of cross-border optionality for market participants. Serbia’s transition into modest net export indicated that even markets with relatively lower prices could supply into tighter regional conditions.
Transmission capacity, congestion and hourly constraints
The flow map pointed to the growing role of congestion in shaping outcomes across borders. Price spreads only matter when interconnectors are available for power transfers. Without export capacity, a low-price market can remain confined locally even if prices elsewhere are higher. Conversely, a moderately priced market with access to a premium zone can become commercially valuable.
This is reflected in how the SEE trading conversation is shifting toward hourly transmission capacity, nomination strategy, balancing exposure and congestion rents. The interaction between transmission availability and market pricing determines whether cross-border trades can clear at times of demand pressure. As a result, hourly constraints influence how traders position around price differentials across neighboring systems.
Implications for renewables and industrial procurement
Cross-border flows also affect how renewable projects are evaluated for revenue capture. A project located in a market with recurring local surplus may face weaker capture prices unless it has access to export routes, storage or shaped offtake arrangements. For industrial buyers, cross-border exposure can change procurement risk profiles because domestic prices may rise even when local generation improves.