Türkiye remained structurally detached from the SEE electricity price stack in Week 25. Its weekly average fell by 27.1% to €16.66/MWh. The figure was far below Greece at €85.50/MWh, Serbia at €85.73/MWh, Bulgaria at €87.58/MWh, Hungary at €109.16/MWh, and Italy at €127.69/MWh.
Implications for price comparison and cross-border value
The scale of the gap limits the usefulness of Türkiye as a direct price comparator for SEE trading. Differences in market dynamics, supply structure, currency and regulatory settings are associated with a price outcome that does not align with EU-linked Balkan and Central European markets. The detachment also raises questions about cross-border value where physical and regulatory conditions allow flows.
A market priced substantially below neighbouring systems draws attention from traders, industrial buyers and policymakers. Where interconnection exists, the size of the discount can influence expectations around value capture across borders. At the same time, the gap is described as too large to ignore while remaining too complex to treat as freely tradable surplus.
Türkiye’s generation mix supports low weekly pricing
Türkiye also remained a major generation system during the period. It was the region’s largest hydro producer, with hydro generation broadly stable at around 2.44 TWh. This stability helped cushion a wider decline in SEE hydro output.
Thermal generation in Türkiye stayed broadly unchanged, though its mix shifted from gas toward coal. The combination of stable hydro output and an unchanged thermal level contributed to Türkiye’s very low weekly price relative to the rest of the region.
SEE demand and scarcity signals contrasted with Türkiye’s price outcome
The wider SEE market moved differently from Türkiye’s pricing pattern in Week 25. Demand increased, hydro weakened in several countries, wind declined, and evening scarcity became more expensive. Türkiye did not follow the same direction in price terms.
This divergence is consistent with a view that SEE operates as partially connected systems rather than a single unified market with one shared price anchor. Different conditions across systems can lead to separate pricing outcomes even when interconnections exist.
Industrial competitiveness and carbon-related considerations
Türkiye’s low electricity price provides an advantage for energy-intensive production, at least in the short term. For EU-facing exporters, low electricity cost is not presented as equivalent to low-carbon credibility. CBAM-related buyers are expected to ask about carbon intensity, verification and contractual traceability of electricity supply.
Trading relevance shaped by rules and interconnection constraints
For SEE traders, Türkiye’s discount functions as a strategic signal rather than a straightforward arbitrage opportunity. Interconnection limits, market rules and political-regulatory factors are identified as key constraints on how value can be realized across systems.