Week 25 provided an early map of risks expected to shape Southeast Europe electricity markets through summer 2026. The period combined higher demand, lower hydro in key markets, weaker wind, rising thermal dispatch and sharp evening price formation. Those elements are described as the pattern most likely to define the next phase of summer trading.
Cooling demand and shifting peak hours
Regional electricity consumption rose 3.1% to 16.34 TWh. Bulgaria and Croatia recorded especially strong increases in demand. Italy added the largest absolute demand volume, reinforcing its role as the region’s main import sink. As temperatures rise, demand pressure is expected to concentrate in late afternoon and evening hours.
Hydro availability and flexibility for evening ramps
Regional hydro generation fell 4.7% to 3.57 TWh. Declines were reported in Italy, Bulgaria and Romania. Hydro is identified as the region’s most important flexible renewable resource. Lower hydro availability is linked to reduced supply and less ability to respond to evening ramps.
Solar and wind output mix
Solar output increased 8.1%, while wind declined 4.4%. The resulting generation profile is described as creating midday supply without fully protecting the evening market. Higher solar penetration is expected to drive lower daytime prices and stronger evening spreads unless storage expands.
Thermal dispatch and gas-fired generation
Thermal generation rose 19.4%, with gas-fired output increasing 32.3%. Lower gas prices are noted as helping the cost base, while power prices still rose due to the need for dispatchable output. Summer scarcity is described as depending on plant availability, fuel logistics and carbon-cost exposure.
Cross-border flows and transmission access
Southeast Europe net imports declined, but Italy still imported 1.12 TWh net. Greece and Bulgaria deepened exports, while Serbia moved into modest net export. The summer market is expected to reward countries and traders with access to transmission capacity during high-value hours.
Price divergence across regional markets
Price levels diverged across markets during the period cited in the risk map. Türkiye remained at €16.66/MWh, while Italy reached €127.69/MWh and Hungary €109.16/MWh. Wide spreads are associated with commercial opportunity alongside exposure to limits of regional integration.
The risk map describes a summer market structure moving toward cheaper solar hours, expensive evening ramps, wider cross-border spreads and stronger value for flexibility. It also links SEE summer price risk to the interaction of heat, hydro, wind, storage, interconnection and the availability of dispatchable capacity.