On 8 July, the Southeast European day-ahead electricity market tightened, with prices moving differently across countries. The HUPX day-ahead price increased to €128.17/MWh, up €21.3/MWh from the previous day. Romania, Croatia and Slovenia traded within a narrow band of €127–128/MWh, while Italy stayed highest at €146.43/MWh. Serbia recorded the lowest price at €104.08/MWh, leaving SEEPEX more than €24/MWh below HUPX.
The move higher reflected market fundamentals alongside changes in weather and generation forecasts. The regional average temperature fell by 2.3°C to 20.7°C, while forecast electricity demand rose by 768 MW to 32,667 MW. Forecast solar generation declined by 807 MW to 5,752 MW, while wind generation increased by 336 MW to 1,517 MW. Lower solar output increased reliance on imports and dispatchable generation, particularly during morning and evening hours.
Duck-curve pricing and flexible generation value
Prices on HUPX followed a pronounced duck-curve pattern during the session. The HUPX baseload price settled at €128.17/MWh, with the peak block averaging €102.2/MWh. The off-peak block reached €154.1/MWh. The structure reflected suppressed daytime pricing linked to solar availability and higher value for flexibility when renewable output was lower outside solar hours.
The session also showed how flexible resources were priced alongside cross-border trading opportunities. Battery storage, hydropower, gas-fired generation and interconnector flows were referenced as key elements supporting market balancing across different hours. The combination of reduced solar output and stronger demand into evening contributed to tighter conditions in much of Southeast Europe.
Cross-border flows and interconnector-driven premiums
Southeast Europe recorded net imports of 2,352 MW, with 3,537 MW imported from the Austria-Slovakia corridor. At the same time, the region exported 1,066 MW to Italy. Italy maintained a premium of €18.26/MWh over Hungary while continuing to receive power despite regional import reliance from Central Europe.
The flow pattern pointed to transmission capacity and interconnector availability as factors shaping regional price formation during the session. Hungary continued to influence pricing through its role in imports and domestic supply composition.
Hungary as pricing hub; Serbia lowest-priced market
Hungary imported 1,277 MW, while domestic generation of 3,383 MW fell short of consumption of 4,660 MW. Support came primarily from Paks nuclear generation, solar production and imports. Even with a narrowed premium versus Germany, HUPX still traded at €29.21/MWh above Germany.
Serbia was the main outlier on the day as SEEPEX declined by €3.9/MWh to €104.08/MWh. Serbian consumption remained stable at 3,560 MW, while generation reached 3,136 MW, leaving Serbia a net importer of 425 MW. Coal-fired generation accounted for 2,578 MW, complemented by 693 MW** of hydropower**, while wind output was limited to only 18 MW.
Bulgaria exports; Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro track Hungary levels
Bulgaria remained the region’s strongest exporter, sending out 1,303 MW. Generation totaled 5,129 MW, compared with domestic demand of 3,826 MW. Nuclear generation provided about 1,886 MW, with solar also contributing materially.
Bulgaria’s IBEX closed at €117.80/MWh, up by a daily increase of €14.8/MWh, but still below Hungarian and Romanian prices. Romania traded at nearly the same level as Hungary at €127.09/MWh, while importing 589 MW; its supply mix included nuclear, hydropower, gas and solar generation.
Croatia’s CROPEX reached €127.08/MWh, with Croatia importing 1,064 MW. Slovenia’s BSP settled at €128.40/MWh, after Slovenia imported 390 MW. Montenegro recorded a higher price increase to €117.54/MWh, up by €23.7/MWh** from the previous day**, while remaining a net importer by **132 MW**; it continued facilitating commercial exports toward Italy via the undersea interconnector.
Forward contracts and fuel-market signals for wholesale power costs
The forward curve showed different movement compared with spot prices. The HU Week 29 contract fell to €130.50/MWh, down by €1.5/MWh