Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets converged into a narrow price band for delivery on Sunday, 19 July 2026. Lower weekend demand and strong photovoltaic output displaced import and thermal-generation pressures seen during the prior week. The resulting settlement patterns were reflected across seven coupled markets.
Hungary’s HUPX market settled at €85.90/MWh, followed by Romania at €86.14/MWh, Bulgaria at €86.21/MWh and Greece at €86.31/MWh. Serbia cleared at €87.32/MWh, with Croatia at €89.11/MWh and Slovenia at €91.14/MWh. The seven prices remained within a tight range for the delivery day.
Only €5.24/MWh separated Hungary, the lowest-priced market, from Slovenia, the highest-priced market. The simple regional average was approximately €87.45/MWh, compared with an average of €106.39/MWh for Saturday delivery. Day-ahead prices therefore shifted lower across the region over the weekend.
Day-ahead declines and system-load reductions
The largest day-on-day falls were recorded in Romania and Croatia. Romania’s prices dropped by €24.07/MWh, while Croatia recorded a decline of €22.27/MWh. Slovenia fell by €22/MWh, Hungary by €20.24/MWh, and Bulgaria and Greece declined by about €15/MWh each.
Serbia recorded the smallest reduction among the seven markets at €13.95/MWh. The convergence reflected generation availability and cross-border capacity that were broadly sufficient to limit a major scarcity premium during most of the day. Closely aligned daily averages, however, can still mask binding constraints during individual hours.
Combined system-load indicators for the seven markets fell to approximately 27.1 GW, down from 28.7 GW on Saturday, a reduction of about 5.6%. Serbia’s indicator decreased from 3,772 MW to 3,371 MW, Croatia’s from 2,403 MW to 2,186 MW, Romania’s from 5,557 MW to 5,238 MW and Hungary’s from 4,464 MW to 4,150 MW. Greece remained the largest market in the group at approximately 7,010 MW.
Solar-driven midday collapse versus evening price spikes
Near-zero midday prices did not remove the evening ramp in hourly trading values. In Hungary, prices were €0.02/MWh at 10:00 CEST before rising to €153.71/MWh at 18:00, producing an intraday spread of almost €154/MWh despite a daily average below €86/MWh. Romania showed a similar pattern with prices falling to €0.02/MWh during the solar window before reaching €154.13/MWh as photovoltaic output declined.
Bulgaria dropped to €0.04/MWh before increasing to €154.96/MWh, while Greece moved from €0.04/MWh to €156.77/MWh during the same transition period from midday generation to evening demand. The most pronounced hourly dislocation occurred in Slovenia.
BSP SouthPool prices in Slovenia fell to €0.02/MWh during late-morning hours before reaching €185.11/MWh in the evening. This created an hourly spread of more than €185/MWh between midday and evening levels on the same delivery day.
SEEPEX products and storage spread signals
Serbia’s SEEPEX auction showed an inversion of the traditional daily price curve between baseload and peak products. Baseload settled at €87.32/MWh, while the peak product averaged just €54.78/MWh. The lower peak price reflected inexpensive solar hours within the standard daytime block.
The exchange cleared 19,203.5 MWh for delivery on Sunday, equivalent to an average hourly traded volume of approximately 800 MWh based on session coverage described in the data set. While liquidity was supported by these volumes, physical balancing exposure remained larger than indicated by day-ahead averages due to forecast errors around solar decline and evening demand increases.
A one-megawatt battery completing a full cycle between Hungary’s lowest and highest hourly prices faced a theoretical gross spread of almost €154 per MWh of storage capacity before accounting for efficiency losses, degradation, grid charges and trading costs. Slovenia’s theoretical spread exceeded €185/MWh. The figures were presented as non-bankable indicators of why captured spread is becoming central for regional storage operations.
Week 27 balance shifts: demand growth and weaker renewables
The Sunday correction followed a materially tighter weekly balance in Week 27 compared with Week 26 conditions described in the dataset narrative. Southeast European electricity demand increased by 2.1% to 18.80 TWh in Week 27 from 18.41 TWh previously. Türkiye added 448 GWh to reach 7.73 TWh.
demand rose by 8% in Greece, 7.3% in Romania and 2.9% in Croatia during Week 27 versus Week 26 levels cited in the source material.
Wind and solar generation moved lower over the same week period, falling by 3.3% to 4.15 TWh. Wind output declined by 5.1%, while solar generation decreased by 1.8%. Hydropower fell further by 3.4%, reducing dispatchable renewable supply available for serving an evening ramp.
Thermal output higher; imports rise across monitored SEE region
The gap was filled by thermal generation as regional thermal output increased by 6.5% to 6.86 TWh. Lignite and coal generation rose by 11.6%, while gas-fired output increased by 3.3%. The shift moved more hours toward marginal costs associated with coal and gas plants.
This increased national price sensitivity to fuel costs, carbon prices and generation outages as described for Week 27 conditions.