South-east European day-ahead electricity prices strengthened across most markets for delivery on 21 July, though the regional average concealed a wider split between solar-influenced midday hours, more expensive evening generation and the availability of cross-border transmission capacity. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia traded within a relatively narrow €137–142/MWh band. Serbia remained cheaper, Montenegro priced at a premium and Albania diverged from the surrounding markets.
The regional system entered Tuesday with forecast electricity consumption of 33,986 MW, up 983 MW or nearly 3% from Monday. Net imports increased by 303 MW to 2,112 MW, while gross imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia edged up to 3,396 MW. The higher import requirement developed even as forecast solar generation rose by 1,428 MW to 8,389 MW. Wind output was expected to decline by 212 MW to 1,258 MW.
Combined solar and wind generation was estimated at around 1,216 MW above the previous day. Additional solar output covered part of the increase in daytime demand and displaced some thermal and hydro generation, but it did not remove the system’s need for imports and flexible resources after sunset. Regional generation was estimated at 31,873 MW, only 680 MW higher than Monday. The resulting shortfall of 303 MW was met through higher net imports.
Day-ahead settlements across SEE markets
HUPX settled at €137.37/MWh, up by €9.80/MWh from Monday. Romania closed slightly above Hungary at €138.68/MWh, with Bulgaria at €138.17/MWh, Slovenia at €141.93/MWh, Croatia at €141.11/MWh, and Greece at €142.21/MWh. Austria was closely aligned with Hungary at €138.31/MWh, leaving a spread of just €0.94/MWh.
EPEX Germany increased to €112.96/MWh, but the Hungarian premium remained at €24.41/MWh. The spread was virtually unchanged despite higher imports from the north-west into the region. The pattern pointed to constraints affecting transfers into central and south-eastern Europe rather than a simple link to German generation availability. Evening flexibility and cross-border transfer capacity were described as scarce in that area.
Basing vs peak-hour pricing in HUPX and OPCOM/BELEN profiles
The regional price profile showed larger moves than baseload settlements alone. HUPX peakload averaged only €110.10/MWh, compared with €164.70/MWh for off-peak delivery. Prices fell to a minimum of €46.40/MWh in hour 14, then rose to a maximum of €211.50/MWh in hour 20. The intraday range therefore reached €165.10/MWh.
This peak–off-peak inversion reflected how products mapped onto solar-heavy hours versus later demand periods. The peak product included the solar-influenced middle of the day, while off-peak captured expensive night-time and late-evening hours. In Romania, OPCOM settled at €138.68/MWh, with peakload at €113.10/MWh. Off-peak was set at €164.30/MWh, with a minimum of €62.90/MWh in hour 9 and a maximum of €208.70/MWh in hour 20.
Bulgaria followed a comparable structure, with prices dropping to a minimum of €63.50/MWh in hour 9. Prices then climbed to a maximum of €208.70/MWh in hour 20. Greece recorded one of the largest daily increases in baseload prices, rising by €17.30/MWh to €142.21/MWh. Greek peakload settled at €115.10/MWh , below off-peak at €169.30/MWh , while the evening maximum reached €216.50/MWh in hour 21 .
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector
Iberian-style spreads not present: Greece imports/export flows into Italy via Bulgaria and Montenegro transit volumes into Italy via undersea interconnector