Friday delivery prices in Southeast Europe were split into three distinct day-ahead pricing zones. Markets covering Hungary, Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Romania converged around €129–133/MWh. Bulgaria and Greece cleared near €124–125/MWh, while Serbia, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia remained substantially cheaper at €92–103/MWh. Italy cleared at a regional premium of €170.23/MWh.
Hungary and Germany converge while imports remain elevated
On the Hungary-Germany axis, HUPX settled at €131.01/MWh, only €0.48/MWh above Germany. The spread compared with roughly €12.5/MWh one day earlier. Germany’s price increase of €12.9/MWh to €130.53/MWh was cited as the main driver of the convergence.
Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia declined by 316 MW to an average of 1,611 MW. Hungary’s generation was forecast at 3,560 MW against consumption of 4,195 MW. That balance implied dependence on approximately 635 MW of net imports. The balance improved from Thursday as domestic generation rose by 243 MW while demand fell by 299 MW.
Eastern market tightens across Romania, Bulgaria and Greece
The eastern pricing zone moved higher as Romanian OPCOM rose by €10.8/MWh to €129.98/MWh. Bulgarian IBEX advanced by €12.4/MWh to €124.08/MWh and Greek HENEX gained €13.1/MWh to €124.85/MWh. Combined consumption forecasts for Romania and Bulgaria increased by 523 MW even as total regional demand fell by 220 MW to 30,514 MW.
Greece’s generation was forecast to fall by about 921 MW from 7,719 MW to 6,798 MW, while consumption declined by only 515 MW. That shift moved Greece from a 340 MW export position to a 66 MW import requirement. Romania’s generation fell by 604 MW while consumption rose by 94 MW, turning Thursday’s 424 MW net export position into a 274 MW net import requirement.
Bulgaria’s demand increased by 429 MW, reducing its export surplus from 1,354 MW to 909 MW. Taken together, the three systems lost approximately 1.55 GW of day-on-day balance strength. This was linked to the broader rebound in eastern prices.
Western Balkan balances improve as Serbia stays discounted
Western Balkan fundamentals moved in the opposite direction from the east as Croatian generation increased by 592 MW to 1,852 MW. Croatia’s net import requirement fell from 857 MW to 183 MW. Bosnia and Herzegovina increased generation by 157 MW while demand fell, lifting net exports to 472 MW.
Montenegro’s generation nearly doubled from 163 MW to 304 MW, reducing imports to 110 MW despite higher consumption. These changes kept the western Balkan price cluster below both HUPX and the Bulgarian-Greek zone.
Serbia’s SEEPEX price recovered by €16.7/MWh to €102.64/MWh but remained below HUPX by €28.37/MWh and below Romania by €27.34/MWh. The gap versus Italy was more than €67/MWh. Serbia was still forecast to import an average of 431 MW with generation of 2,875 MW covering around 87% of projected consumption of 3,306 MW.
Montenegro records lowest prices amid transit flows toward Italy
Montenegro recorded the region’s lowest price at €92.19/MWh, down €14.6/MWh day on day. BELEN traded at a discount of €38.81/MWh versus HUPX and a discount of €78.04/MWh versus Italy.
Montenegro’s commercial position was dominated by transit as it imported electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania and Kosovo while scheduling about 591 MW toward Italy through the submarine interconnector.
Total Southeast European and Hungarian exports toward Italy declined by 227 MW to 1,137 MW. The change reflected Italy’s €10.8/MWh price correction alongside higher prices across Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.
Hourly curves show deep intraday swings across HUPX and Germany
The hourly price profile showed a wide range in both Hungary and Germany during Friday delivery trading windows. HUPX recorded a minimum of €13.50/MWh in hour 14 and a maximum of €200.90/MWh in hour 22 for an intraday range of €187.40/MWh.
Germany displayed an almost identical pattern with prices falling to €6.50/MWh in hour 15 before rising to €203.20/MWh in hour 22. Romania, Slovenia and Croatia also fell to around €13/MWh around midday before approaching €200/MWh during the evening.
Peak/off-peak economics invert as solar output rises
The intraday pattern produced an inversion between traditional peakload and off-peak blocks on HUPX. Peakload averaged only €92/MWh, compared with €170/MWh for off-peak hours.
The inversion was also reported for Germany at €81.9/MWh, Romania at €78.3/MWh, Slovenia at €80/MWh, and Croatia at €73.6/MWh. The off-peak block included late-evening hours when solar output had disappeared and residual demand was tightest.
Renewables forecasts drive steep residual ramps after sunset
The outlook for weather-dependent generation included forecast solar output rising by 705 MW to 6,861 MW. Wind generation was expected to fall by 810 MW to 1,817 MW. The combination was linked to the extreme hourly price profile through lower midday prices alongside weaker wind support during evening ramps.
The forecast implied thermal generators and imports would need to cover a steeper increase in residual load after sunset as renewable availability tightened later in the day.
Batteries face large theoretical spreads while forward prices rise
For battery storage on HUPX, the minimum-to-maximum spread corresponded to a theoretical gross range of €187.40/MWh. With an assumed 85% round-trip efficiency, buying one megawatt-hour at the daily minimum and selling the resulting 0.85 MWh at the maximum would yield approximately €157/MWh gross energy margin before fees, degradation and balancing costs.
The forward market showed higher scarcity premiums with Hungarian Week 31 increasing by €5/MWh to €145/MWh and Week 32 rising by €7.5/MWh to €172/MWh. The Week 32 Hungary–Germany premium expanded to €27/MWh, while Hungary moved within only €2.5/MWh of Italy.