Tuesday delivery prices increased across Southeast Europe, with the higher regional average masking a larger split between near-zero midday levels and more expensive evening hours. Hungary’s HUPX market settled at €122.08/MWh, up €26.50/MWh from Monday. Forecast regional electricity demand rose by 1.66 GW to 31.74 GW.
The price increase was not linked to weaker renewable output. Forecast solar production climbed by 1.36 GW to 7.49 GW, while wind generation increased by 523 MW to 2.08 GW. The change was attributed to a growing mismatch between renewable generation and electricity demand over the day.
Midday price troughs and evening scarcity across the region
In Hungary, hourly prices fell from roughly €150–170/MWh overnight and during the morning to single-digit levels between hours 11 and 16. Prices then rebounded rapidly, exceeding €170/MWh by hour 19. During the evening peak, prices rose above €210/MWh.
A similar pattern appeared in Romania, Slovenia and Greece. Romanian prices approached zero during peak solar output before recovering above €210/MWh in the evening. Slovenia followed the Hungarian curve closely, while Greece saw a temporary easing during one evening hour before strengthening again.
The regional profile combined a deep midday price trough with a period of evening scarcity lasting about four to five hours. The summer pattern was described as increasingly shaped by solar output suppressing daytime prices across interconnected markets. Dispatchable resources, reservoir hydropower, battery storage and flexible imports were cited as capturing more of the market value.
Germany-Hungary spread narrows as imports fall
Germany recorded a strong day-on-day increase in day-ahead prices, narrowing the gap with Hungary. German day-ahead prices rose by €39.70/MWh to €116.82/MWh. This exceeded Hungary’s daily increase of €26.50/MWh.
The Hungarian premium over Germany narrowed from €18.46/MWh to €5.26/MWh. Imports from Austria and Slovakia remained substantial at 1.89 GW, but were down by 841 MW versus the previous session.
The report also highlighted that daily averages do not reflect where cross-border flows were most valuable. Imports from Austria and Slovakia increased during the evening ramp when Hungarian prices approached or exceeded €200/MWh. During midday, when solar pushed prices sharply lower, incentives for imports weakened.
Price levels by market: eastern Southeast Europe cheaper on average
Austrian pricing was referenced at an average of €126.77/MWh, with Slovenia settling at €125.48/MWh. Hungary’s premium over Germany was still described as part of a broader cluster involving Austria, Slovenia and Hungary, despite hourly differences driven by congestion and national generation patterns.
Eastern Southeast Europe cleared at comparatively lower average prices despite higher demand levels. Romania settled at €110.78/MWh, while Bulgaria and Greece both cleared at €106.99/MWh. North Macedonia finished at €107.54/MWh, Serbia at €116.54/MWh, and Croatia at €115.40/MWh.
The report quantified discounts versus Hungary: Romania traded at an €11.30/MWh discount, while Bulgaria and Greece were each at a €15.09/MWh discount. North Macedonia was at a €14.54/MWh discount, and Serbia maintained a smaller discount of €5.54/MWh. Demand rose by 703 MW in Greece, and by a combined 584 MW across Romania and Bulgaria.
Bulgaria remained the largest net exporter with about 1.24 GW of surplus electricity on average. Romania exported around 494 MW, while Greece recorded a modest surplus of roughly 104 MW. These positions were linked to why Bulgarian and Greek prices stayed among the lowest in the region during tightening evening conditions.
Northern deficits, Montenegro alignment and Albania’s outlier pricing
The report contrasted export-heavy markets with those dependent on imports for supply balance. Serbia required approximately 686 MW of net imports, Croatia around 1.03 GW, and Hungary roughly 883 MW. This placed the central Southeast European corridor in a tighter supply position than Romania and Bulgaria.
Northern deficits, Montenegro alignment and Albania’s outlier pricing (continued)
The report said Montenegro settled at €125.06/MWh, close to Slovenia’s level and only €2.98/MWh above Hungary. Montenegro also saw a daily increase of €22/MWh, placing it above Serbia, Croatia and the eastern markets.
The clearest divergence came from Albania’s ALPEX price, which rose by €84.50/MWh to €158.30/MWh. That created a premium of more than €36/MWh over Hungary, and more than €51/MWh above Bulgaria and Greece. The report pointed to factors including local hydrological conditions, constrained import capacity, limited market liquidity or combinations of these.