Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rebounded for Monday, 31 August, as the market moved out of the weekend. Peak-hour values recovered sharply, while import availability from core European markets was reduced, widening regional spreads. The shift brought a return of weekday price structure after exceptionally weak Sunday daytime levels.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload increased by €46/MWh to €173.41/MWh. Romania rose by €50.1/MWh to €174.90/MWh, while Slovenia settled at €173.61/MWh and Albania at €173.42/MWh. Croatia closed at €172.28/MWh, with Bulgaria and Greece both at €171.24/MWh.
The settlements produced a relatively tight €171-175/MWh cluster across much of the interconnected eastern and central SEE market. Serbia was the main exception, with SEEPEX rising by €35/MWh on the day but settling at only €132.21/MWh. That left Serbia at a €41.20/MWh discount to Hungary.
Peak-hour recovery drives higher baseload settlements
The price move reflected less of a uniform tightening across southeast Europe and more of a re-establishment of weekday peak structure after weak Sunday daytime pricing. On HUPX, the Monday peak contract averaged €145.2/MWh, compared with just €60.8/MWh on Sunday, an increase of more than €84/MWh. Off-peak prices rose from €194.1/MWh to €201.6/MWh.
Hungary’s hourly minimum increased from -€1.4/MWh on Sunday to €84.4/MWh for Monday, while the maximum reached €254.3/MWh at hour 19. The pattern indicates that the extreme weekend daytime discount was no longer the main driver of the higher baseload settlement.
The same peak-focused repricing was visible in Serbia. SEEPEX peakload increased from €44.9/MWh on Sunday to €123.3/MWh on Monday, while off-peak prices fell from €149.5/MWh to €141.1/MWh. Serbia’s baseload rose to €132.2/MWh from €97.2/MWh despite the continuing discount versus neighbouring markets.
Serbia also recorded an unusually wide Monday hourly range, from €50/MWh to €233.2/MWh. Montenegro settled below the regional core at €162.69/MWh, or €10.72/MWh below HUPX, while North Macedonia closed at €152.58/MWh, a discount of €20.84/MWh.
Imports fall as cross-border availability tightens
Cross-border data pointed to why several SEE markets moved higher even though aggregate consumption declined day on day. Combined Hungary and SEE consumption was indicated at 30,866 MW, down 495 MW versus Sunday. Regional generation increased to 28,281 MW, from 27,515 MW.
This left net imports lower at 2,585 MW, compared with 3,846 MW previously. Imports from the Austria-Slovakia core into Hungary and Slovenia fell sharply to 2,947 MW from 4,407 MW, a decline of 1,460 MW.
The relationship with Germany highlighted the regional separation in pricing levels during Monday trading. German day-ahead baseload settled at €111.85/MWh, leaving Hungary at a €61.56/MWh premium. Austria reached €177.99/MWh and the Italian benchmark stood at €197.31/MWh.
The Germany-Hungary gap was described as more relevant than the Hungary-Greece spread, which was only €2.18/MWh on the day.
Serbia remains net importer while acting as discount hub
Serbia’s deep discount persisted despite remaining a net importer rather than turning into a large surplus market for Monday trading conditions. Average Serbian consumption was forecast at 3,574 MW, against generation of 3,089 MW, producing net imports of around 485 MW.
The country imported on average from Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina while exporting towards Montenegro and North Macedonia. Baseload imports averaged 276 MW from Bulgaria, 160 MW from Romania and 174 MW from Hungary.
Serbia scheduled around 160 MW towards Montenegro and about 50 MW towards North Macedonia during the period referenced in the data.
The persistence of a €41/MWh Serbian discount alongside that net import position pointed to continued separation within SEEPEX pricing rather than a simple domestic supply surplus explanation based on the figures provided.
Bilateral flows shape Montenegro transit and Romania-Bulgaria balance
Montenegro showed a distinct cross-border structure in parallel with its domestic import dependence. Its consumption was indicated at 485 MW, with generation at 342 MW, while it simultaneously scheduled roughly 569 MW towards Italy.
The data placed Italy around €197/MWh and Montenegro at €162.69/MWh for the relevant settlements referenced in the report.
Romania’s Monday settlement matched a relatively tight domestic balance as well as continued import needs into its system regionally priced against its neighbours. Consumption was indicated at 4,552 MW, compared with generation of just 3,639 MW, leaving net imports of about 913 MW; Romania imported heavily from Bulgaria and Hungary while continuing to supply Serbia.
Bulgaria’s position contrasted with that setup through higher generation versus consumption, supporting exports averaging about 1,087 MW. Bulgaria’s generation reached around 4,935 MW against consumption of 3,848 MW; commercial flows included approximately 600 MW towards Romania and 276 MW towards Serbia.
Forward curve keeps Hungarian premium over Germany
The forward curve continued to price a substantial Hungarian premium over Germany for near-term delivery periods referenced in the data set. Hungarian week-36 power stood at €160/MWh, week 37 at €161/MWh and September at €165/MWh.
The corresponding HU-DE spread was listed at €40.50/MWh for week 36 before falling to €27/MWh for week 37 and September.
The same derivatives set showed CEGH gas indicated at €68.36/MWh, while EUA allowances were around {82.73/t}. The forward structure indicated that an extreme spot premium over Germany would be expected to narrow but not disappear based on those quoted levels.