Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe rebounded for Monday delivery, with SEEPEX rising to €190.54/MWh. The move coincided with Serbia pricing away from the rest of the SEE cluster, where several central markets settled in a narrower band. HUPX, OPCOM and CROPEX cleared at €176.38/MWh, €175.71/MWh and €176.84/MWh, respectively. Slovenia settled slightly higher at €179.82/MWh.
Serbia’s premium was reflected in the spreads versus neighbouring hubs. Serbia traded about €14.17/MWh above Hungary, almost €29/MWh above Bulgaria, and more than €48/MWh above Greece and Montenegro. The southern part of the curve remained softer, with Bulgaria at €161.65/MWh, North Macedonia at €158.31/MWh, Albania at €168.12/MWh, Greece at €142.34/MWh, and Montenegro at only €140.95/MWh. Italy remained the regional high at €218.93/MWh.
Load recovery lifts demand while net imports decline
The Monday rebound was linked to the return of weekday load after Sunday levels. Combined Hungary-SEE consumption rose by about 3.1 GW, reaching 30.77 GW. Regional generation recovered to roughly 30.20 GW. Despite higher demand, the aggregate net-import requirement fell to 568 MW, compared with 1.26 GW a day earlier.
The market signal for traders focused on where generation was located and whether cross-border capacity could move it into higher-priced zones. In that context, Serbia remained the clearest deficit market in the region’s pricing picture. Average Serbian consumption increased to 3,518 MW, while generation reached only 2,913 MW. That left the system around 605 MW net short.
Serbia’s deficit widens import dependence as flows shift
Serbian domestic supply rose by just 84 MW from Sunday, while demand increased by almost 290 MW. This widened Serbia’s reliance on imports during the period covered by the day-ahead assessments. Bulgaria was one of the main suppliers into Serbia, with Bulgarian flows averaging about 336 MW. During peak hours, those flows increased to about 393 MW.
Bulgaria-to-Serbia flows were complemented by Romanian supply averaging about 114 MW. During peak hours, Romania supplied Serbia by about 321 MW. The Serbia-Hungary route showed a different pattern for price formation, with recorded commercial flows at zero throughout all 24 hours on Sept. 7. That followed substantial two-way trading on preceding days.
Coupling across central markets contrasts with border constraints signals
The lack of activity on the Serbia-Hungary route helped explain why SEEPEX detached sharply from HUPX, even though Hungary itself traded at a relatively elevated level of €176.38/MWh. Romania sat close to the Hungarian price at €175.71/MWh, only €0.67/MWh below HUPX, indicating strong price coupling despite large changes in hourly Romanian-Hungarian flows. Bulgaria retained a discount of €14.73/MWh versus Hungary.
Bulgaria’s lower level was linked to a stronger domestic balance and substantial export availability into the wider area covered by day-ahead pricing. At the southern end of the curve, Montenegro remained anomalously cheap relative to Hungary’s hub price level. BELEN settled at €35.43/MWh below HUPX, while Montenegro itself was around €68 MW net short. Montenegro imported from surrounding Balkan systems while sending an average of €539 MW toward Italy, where day-ahead prices were nearly €78/MWh higher.
Transit shapes regional balance as Italy pulls prices higher
The broader Hungary-SEE region imported around €1.63 GW from Austria and Slovakia., while approximately €1.43 GW was simultaneously moving toward Italy.. This meant regional balance was shaped more by transit than by simple aggregate shortage between supply and demand zones. Italy continued to exert the strongest external pull in day-ahead pricing at €218.93/MWh..
The market structure across hubs was described as follows: Serbia represented the scarcity premium, Hungary-Romania-Croatia-Slovenia formed a central price cluster, Bulgaria and North Macedonia provided an intermediate discount, while Greece and Montenegro remained in a low-price southern zone.
Solar and wind outlook leaves focus on import routes for next session
The next-session risk highlighted that SEEPEX could keep a premium if Serbia’s import requirement stays near current levels while access from Hungary remains constrained. Even moderate additional Serbian demand could translate into higher SEEPEX spreads rather than being absorbed through regional convergence if cross-border capacity remains limited.
Bulgaria’s export position was cited as providing downward pressure on the eastern SEE complex and limiting how far any Serbian premium would automatically extend into Romania and Bulgaria. Renewable conditions were not expected to materially change near-term supply, with regional solar forecast broadly flat around €6.14 GW.. Wind was expected to decline by roughly €233 MW..
The trading focus for the next session therefore centred on Serbian import availability, Bulgaria-to-Serbia and Romania-to-Serbia flows, restoration of commercial exchange on the Serbia-Hungary route, and continued strength of the Italian premium reflected in day-ahead prices.
The overall market signal remained congestion-driven fragmentation rather than region-wide generation scarcity, with adequate power existing across SEE but transmission availability determining which markets can access it and at what price.