Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe diverged for delivery on Tuesday, September 8, as stronger solar generation pushed down midday levels. At the same time, Italy and parts of the Western Balkans continued to trade at significant premiums.
Baseload day-ahead prices across SEE and Hungary
On the HUPX market, Hungary’s baseload price was broadly stable at €176.58/MWh. Romania followed closely at €176.65/MWh, while Serbia fell by €12.2/MWh to €178.33/MWh.
Montenegro recorded a sharp increase of €51.4/MWh to €192.33/MWh, while Albania rose by €14.1/MWh to €182.25/MWh. Greece and Bulgaria remained considerably cheaper, averaging €145.93/MWh and €157.98/MWh, respectively.
Italy posted the strongest premium in the region at €224.46/MWh. The gap between Greece and Italy was €78.53/MWh, leaving Italy €47.88/MWh above Hungary.
Demand, wind and solar shape the regional price spread
The geographic spread widened even as fundamentals were described as relatively balanced across the region. Electricity demand across SEE and Hungary was forecast at 31.47 GW, about 827 MW higher than the previous day.
Solar generation was expected to rise by more than 2 GW to 7.98 GW, while wind generation stayed broadly stable at 2.33 GW. The region remained a net importer of around 1.26 GW.
Inflows from Austria and Slovakia increased to 2.19 GW, while approximately 1.45 GW continued to flow toward Italy.
Intraday swings and solar-driven troughs in multiple markets
The market setup highlighted the role of cross-border transmission constraints in shaping outcomes across hours. Strong solar availability depressed prices during the middle of the day but did not remove premiums linked to westbound capacity toward Italy or local premiums in parts of the Western Balkans.
Hungary showed pronounced intraday volatility on HUPX, with prices dropping to just €25/MWh in hour 13 before rising to €297.1/MWh in hour 20. The baseload average of €176.58/MWh therefore masked an intraday swing of more than €270/MWh.
Other markets also showed solar-driven troughs during midday hours. Greece reached €0/MWh and Bulgaria fell to €20.2/MWh before both climbed above €260/MWh during the evening ramp.
Croatia followed a similar pattern, falling to €28.1/MWh before rising as high as €304.5/MWh.
Western Balkans price profile differs from Greece and Bulgaria
The Western Balkans displayed a different price profile compared with Greece and Bulgaria during midday hours. Serbia’s minimum price stayed at €96/MWh with a maximum of €284.1/MWh.
Montenegro did not fall below €150/MWh and reached €270/MWh, indicating a less pronounced solar-driven midday discount than in Greece, Bulgaria and several Central European markets.
Serbia net imports tighten while Montenegro keeps a local premium
Serbia was among the clearest bearish movers of the day, with its net import requirement narrowing to approximately 458 MW from 578 MW. Average generation increased to 3.07 GW from 2.91 GW, while demand rose to 3.53 GW from 3.49 GW.
Serbia continued receiving electricity from several neighboring markets while maintaining exports toward Montenegro, reducing its premium over HUPX to just €1.75/MWh.
Montenegro moved in the opposite direction, with BELEN’s settlement at €192.33/MWh. That placed Montenegro at €15.75/MWh above Hungary.
Montenegro remained a net importer of approximately 105 MW, even as average flows toward Italy reached roughly 503 MW. Imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia supported domestic demand while exports continued through the Adriatic corridor.
Forward curve rises alongside gas and carbon costs
Forward electricity prices strengthened after the day-ahead moves described for September 8. Hungarian Week 38 power increased by €6.5/MWh to €181/MWh, while Week 39 gained €5/MWh to €188/MWh.