Day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe strengthened on Friday amid weaker wind generation, firm gas prices and lower imports. Regional supply and demand tightened, but Serbia remained a clear outlier. Prices on the SEEPEX exchange traded significantly below those in neighbouring markets.
Coupled market price moves
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price increased by €5.60/MWh to €208.98/MWh. The move left Hungary close to Romania, where the price settled at €208.46/MWh. Croatia and Slovenia followed at €206.74/MWh and €206.58/MWh, respectively.
Bulgaria recorded the strongest increase among the larger coupled markets, with its baseload price rising €12.20/MWh to €200.66/MWh. The gains were recorded despite slightly cooler weather across Hungary and most of Southeast Europe. Regional electricity demand was forecast to rise by 184 MW to an average 31,668 MW.
Romania and Bulgaria accounted for most of the demand increase, contributing a combined rise of 449 MW. Renewable generation prospects weakened over the same period. Forecast regional wind output fell by 700 MW to 1,246 MW.
The decline in wind availability exceeded a smaller reduction in solar generation, which fell by 108 MW to 5,779 MW. With wind output lower, thermal generation and imports were expected to cover more of the stronger-demand periods. Regional net imports declined by 180 MW to 1,370 MW.
Cross-border flows and Italy
Flows from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia fell by 292 MW to 1,449 MW. This reduced access to relatively cheaper electricity from core European markets. At the same time, Southeast Europe remained a net exporter to Italy.
Exports to Italy were around 635 MW, up by 50 MW from the previous day. Italy’s price declined sharply but stayed the highest among the monitored markets at €216.25/MWh. The higher Italian level maintained incentives for exports towards the west.
Premiums versus Germany and Greece
Hungary’s premium over Germany widened to €13.75/MWh, up by €2.20/MWh. Its premium over Greece increased to €26.56/MWh as well. Germany settled at €195.23/MWh while Greece eased to €182.42/MWh.
Austria traded almost in line with Hungary at €209.03/MWh. This indicated that price pressure extended beyond HUPX into the wider regional import corridor.
Gas, carbon and forward power
Fuel markets added support for higher power prices in the region. Austrian CEGH gas rose by €2.40/MWh to €83.17/MWh, while Greek gas prices increased to €63/MWh.
EU carbon allowances edged higher to €85.82/t, lifting short-run costs for gas- and coal-fired generation. Forward electricity prices also remained elevated in Hungary.
Hungary’s October baseload contract increased by €4.50/MWh to €198/MWh, while the calendar contract rose by €4 to €154.50/MWh. October and fourth-quarter gas contracts climbed to €83.50/MWh.
Near-term Hungarian contracts moved lower instead: week 38 fell by €7.50/MWh to €183/MWh and week 39 declined by €6/MWh to €186.50/MWh. The split left longer-dated contracts pricing fuel and winter supply risks into October while shorter terms pointed to some easing expectations.
Serbia decouples on SEEPEX
Serbia was the main regional outlier as SEEPEX fell by €10.20/MWh to €164.14/MWh on Friday. That left Serbia at a discount of €44.84/MWh versus Hungary and more than €42/MWh below Croatia.
An unusually wide Serbian discount persisted despite electricity being sufficiently abundant to push SEEPEX lower on the day. Serbia’s average net import position stood at around 650 MW, but imports did not remove the substantial price gap.
Southern Balkans prices below Hungary
Prices across the southern Balkans increased but stayed below the Hungarian hub level at around €209/MWh for HUPX-linked pricing points referenced in the region’s comparisons. Montenegro rose by €30.70/MWh to €185.33/MWh.
North Macedonia recorded a sharp increase of €46.50/MWh to €179.88/MWh, while Albania climbed by enough to reach €197.58/MWh on Friday. Albania’s move narrowed its discount to Hungary to €11.40/MWh.
The combination of expensive gas, weaker wind generation and lower imports from core Europe left Southeast European power markets exposed to sharp day-to-day swings in pricing conditions.
The Serbian discount also reflected transmission availability and local generation conditions alongside fuel fundamentals, with electricity not sufficiently transferable across borders to ease prices in markets trading above €200/MWh.