Hungarian day-ahead electricity prices for Monday delivery rose sharply as weekday demand recovered and wind generation declined. The HUPX baseload price increased by €88.80/MWh from Sunday to €250.97/MWh, the highest level in Southeast Europe. It also traded only €5.58/MWh below Germany’s €256.55/MWh.
Slovenia and Croatia settled close to the Central European cluster, at €246.31/MWh and €245.36/MWh, respectively. Austria traded at €246.98/MWh, while Romania was slightly lower at €237.61/MWh. The regional move coincided with a tightening of the overall balance.
Demand recovery and lower wind tighten the regional system
Consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast to rise by 3.64 GW to 29.69 GW as markets returned from the weekend. Wind generation was expected to fall by 1.13 GW to 2.04 GW. Forecast solar production increased by 778 MW to 5.95 GW, but the extra midday output was not enough to offset stronger demand and weaker wind conditions, particularly after sunset.
The highest pricing pressure appeared in the evening hours. HUPX reached €619.70/MWh in hour 20, compared with a daily minimum of €161.70/MWh. Germany peaked at €697.30/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia reached almost €600/MWh.
Romania recorded an evening maximum of €615.80/MWh, indicating the scarcity conditions extended across the northern part of the region. Further south, price increases were still present but less pronounced across multiple markets.
North-south price split widens with SEEPEX-HUPX spread
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price rose by €76.70/MWh to €199.44/MWh, leaving it €51.53/MWh below Hungary’s HUPX level. Albania traded at €204.75/MWh, Bulgaria at €193.13/MWh, and Greece at €186.76/MWh. Montenegro and North Macedonia recorded the lowest prices in the region at €179.97/MWh and €179.60/MWh, respectively.
The market divergence separated into three broad pricing zones based on day-ahead levels. Germany, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia were above €245/MWh, while Italy and Romania were between €226/MWh and €238/MWh. Most of the southern Balkans were in a band of €180/MWh to €205/MWh.
This separation pointed to binding cross-border constraints limiting transfers from lower-priced supply areas toward higher-priced systems in Hungary and parts of the northern Adriatic market area.
Cross-border flows: Romania transit role and Serbia exports toward Hungary
Romania exported an average 1.62 GW to Hungary, rising to 2.25 GW during peak hours, while importing around 1.82 GW from Bulgaria at the same time. The pattern supported Romania’s role as a transit market between cheaper Bulgarian supply and tighter Hungarian conditions.
Serbia also shifted toward exports to Hungary, averaging 233 MW over the day and reaching 369 MW during peak hours. Even with that change, available capacity was not sufficient to close a spread of more than €50/MWh between SEEPEX and HUPX.
Serbian consumption was forecast at 3.33 GW, up by around 329 MW from Sunday, while generation recovered more strongly by about 819 MW to 3.05 GW. That reduced net imports to 276 MW from 766 MW a day earlier.
The Serbian power balance included continued imports from Bulgaria and North Macedonia alongside exports north toward Hungary. Its peakload price reached €214.10/MWh, compared with an off-peak average of €184.80/MWh.
Northern Adriatic interconnector flows and Balkan balancing changes
Montenegro remained a modest net importer at 47 MW, with consumption of 361 MW and domestic generation of 314 MW. No scheduled commercial flow was recorded through the Montenegro-Italy interconnector despite an Italian national price of €225.85/MWh, nearly €46/MWh above Montenegro’s level.
Albania reduced net imports to 272 MW from 554 MW as domestic generation more than doubled to 566 MW, though its day-ahead price still rose by €58/MWh.
Gas, carbon and forward curve move lower despite spot spike
Around the power market move, fuel prices provided continued support for electricity costs in gas- and coal-fired generation segments. Austrian CEGH gas edged up to €81.95/MWh, while Greek gas remained at €63/MWh. EU carbon allowances were at €85.52/tonne.
Hungarian forward prices, however, declined across listed maturities: Week 38 fell by €4/MWh to €179/MWh, Week 39 dropped to €184.50/MWh, and October eased to €196/MWh. The October Hungarian premium stood at €33/MWh over Germany.
The forward curve decline indicated traders treated Monday’s spot surge as a short-term combination of lower wind output, recovering demand and evening scarcity conditions rather than a sustained repricing across all horizons.
The key market signal for participants was the return of wide north-south spreads between southern Balkan prices below €200/MWh and Hungary approaching €251/MWh, with the gap linked to securing scarce cross-border capacity.