Day-ahead electricity prices increased across most of Southeast Europe for Friday delivery, with weaker wind generation raising the region’s import requirement. The move widened Hungary’s premium to Germany even as solar output was stronger. Hungary’s HUPX baseload price rose by €2.50 to €180.25/MWh, the highest level among the main Central and Southeast European markets outside Italy.
The Hungarian-German spread widened by nearly €25 to €59.72/MWh. Germany’s price fell by €22.40 to €120.53/MWh, while Hungary’s increase left the gap at the higher end of recent levels. The change in relative pricing was reflected in day-ahead market outcomes across the monitored region.
Imports into Hungary and regional net position increase
The widening spread coincided with a sharp rise in electricity flows into Hungary and across Southeast Europe from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports were forecast at an average 2,605 MW, up 1,252 MW from Thursday. The region’s overall net import position increased by 1,443 MW to 2,569 MW.
Power-balance data indicated that Bulgaria was the largest regional exporter at about 1,551 MW, followed by Greece at 602 MW. Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Serbia remained net importers. Hungary imported around 1,744 MW, while Romania imported about 1,203 MW.
Wind decline offsets higher solar as demand stays steady
The shift in supply conditions was driven mainly by wind. Regional wind output was forecast to fall by 932 MW to 1,140 MW. This decline more than offset a 1,065 MW increase in solar generation to 7,208 MW.
Consumption was expected to rise only moderately, increasing by 222 MW to 29,600 MW. The regional average temperature was expected to be around one degree Celsius higher. With lower wind supply alongside broadly stable demand, imports and more expensive thermal generation were required to cover the imbalance.
Spot prices rise unevenly across SEE markets
Serbia saw the strongest price increase, with SEEPEX jumping by €50.50 to €159.62/MWh. Despite the rise, Serbia remained €20.63/MWh below Hungary. Greece increased by €26.60 to €168.90/MWh, while Albania gained €24.10 to €171.58/MWh.
Romania increased by €7.30 to €176.48/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to just €3.77/MWh. Bulgaria advanced by €10.40 to €169.55/MWh. Slovenia fell by €23.20 to €168.41/MWh and Croatia eased by €1.90 to €170.33/MWh.
Montenegro rose to €148.13/MWh and North Macedonia remained the cheapest monitored SEE market at €144.54/MWh. Italy moved in the opposite direction relative to most of the region’s increases, with its national price slipping slightly to €220.83/MWh.
Italy premium persists as flows continue westward
The Italian price left it at a premium of more than €40/MWh versus Hungary and around €50-76/MWh versus most southeastern markets. That pricing structure supported continued commercial incentives for westward exports based on the day-ahead spreads cited in the market data. The region was forecast to send an average 464 MW toward Italy while relying heavily on northern imports.
The market conditions also reflected transmission constraints rather than changes in regional consumption levels alone. With wind output falling sharply, transmission capacity became decisive for how power moved through Austria and Slovakia while maintaining exports toward Italy.
Forward prices strengthen alongside weaker fuel markets
Forward prices strengthened after Friday’s day-ahead moves were priced in across contracts for Hungary and October delivery periods cited in the data set. Hungarian week 39 power rose by €11 to €190.50/MWh, week 40 gained €3 to €188.50/MWh, and October increased by €3.50 to €198.50/MWh.
The calendar 2026 contract remained unchanged at €149.50/MWh. Fuel markets were weaker over the same period: Austrian CEGH gas dropped by €4.90 to €78.50/MWh and October gas declined to €77.50/MWh; October coal eased to $138.50 a tonne.
EU carbon allowances, however, moved higher, rising by €1.30 to €86.03 a tonne as power prices strengthened in Southeast Europe for Friday delivery.