Day-ahead electricity prices rose across Hungary and much of southeastern Europe on Tuesday, with colder conditions increasing demand while renewable output weakened and electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia declined. The price moves were reflected in multiple monitored markets, including HUPX, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia.
On HUPX, the day-ahead baseload contract increased by €45.20 to €233.90/MWh, the highest level among the monitored markets. Romania’s day-ahead baseload price rose by €48.50 to €231.74/MWh. Croatia and Slovenia also climbed, reaching €225.27/MWh and €223.46/MWh after increases of €69.40 and €75.30 respectively.
Demand and renewables shift during the temperature drop
The day-ahead increase coincided with a regional temperature decline of about 5 degrees Celsius. Forecast consumption rose by 952 MW to 29,382 MW. Expected solar production fell by 207 MW to 4,957 MW, while wind output declined by 213 MW to 2,266 MW.
Regional supply tightness was reinforced by lower electricity flows from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports into Hungary and the adjoining SEE markets decreased by 1,425 MW to 1,502 MW. Total regional net imports fell by 306 MW to 1,684 MW, with cross-border flows from Italy shifting by more than 1 GW compared with the previous day.
Germany’s rise narrows the HU-DE spread
Germany recorded a steep day-ahead price increase alongside the regional move. Its day-ahead contract rose by €129.60 to €226.18/MWh. The change nearly removed Hungary’s recent premium over Germany.
The HU-DE spread narrowed to €7.73/MWh from €92.10/MWh a day earlier. This reflected the faster rise in Germany relative to Hungary over the same period.
Eastern and western SEE prices diverge
Bulgaria and Greece remained expensive but traded below Hungary’s HUPX level. Bulgaria settled at €211.73/MWh and Greece at €211.76/MWh, leaving both markets at discounts of about €22/MWh versus HUPX. Romania’s discount was only €2.16/MWh, indicating tighter conditions in the coupled Hungarian-Romanian area.
Western Balkan prices were substantially lower than Hungary’s level despite also moving higher in some cases. Serbia’s SEEPEX rose by €30.10 to €177.82/MWh, still trading at a discount of €56.08/MWh to Hungary. Albania reached €180.83/MWh, Montenegro eased to €161.31/MWh, and North Macedonia fell to €151.10/MWh, the lowest price in the monitored region.
The difference between Hungary and North Macedonia widened to almost €83/MWh as prices diverged across the SEE market. Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, while Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Greece retained net-import positions.
Forward power prices ease while gas and coal weaken
Forward contracts did not fully track Tuesday’s day-ahead surge in Hungary. The week-40 contract fell by €14 to €183.50/MWh, week 41 declined to €197/MWh, and October lost €10 to reach €198/MWh. The Hungarian calendar-2026 contract eased by €4 to €149.50/MWh.
Fuel prices also weakened during the same period for key benchmarks mentioned in the market data. Austrian CEGH gas fell by €3.50 to €76.45/MWh, while Greek gas declined by €2.90 to €57.14/MWh; October and fourth-quarter gas contracts both dropped by €6.50 to €74.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances edged down to €86.59 a tonne, while October coal slipped to $134.50 a tonne.
The combination of weaker fuel pricing and lower forward electricity levels pointed to expectations that Tuesday’s spot increase was driven mainly by short-term weather conditions and cross-border supply changes affecting the region’s power system.
The immediate market risk remained concentrated in evening hours, when colder demand could coincide with reduced solar generation and limited access to cheaper central European imports, potentially widening premiums for Hungary, Romania and northern SEE markets again.