During Week 24, day-ahead electricity prices declined across most markets while South East European generation shifted toward thermal sources. The change coincided with higher renewable output alongside a sharp reduction in hydropower production. Coal and lignite increased their role in the regional generation mix over the same period.
Hydropower declines across SEE
Regional hydro production fell by 300.2 GWh (−7.5%) to 3.70 TWh. Türkiye accounted for the largest part of the decline, with hydro output down by 229 GWh. Bulgaria decreased by 42.9 GWh, Greece by 17.3%, Serbia by 4.2%, Romania by 2.4%, and Italy by 2.2%.
The drop in hydropower reduced flexible, low-marginal-cost generation as summer demand began to increase. With hydro output lower, the regional system required additional generation from other sources during the same week.
Thermal generation covers the shortfall
Total thermal generation rose by 362.6 GWh (8.7%) to reach 4.52 TWh. The increase was driven entirely by coal and lignite, which climbed by 420.6 GWh (24.4%) to 2.14 TWh. Gas-fired generation fell by 58.0 GWh (−2.4%) to 2.38 TWh.
This shift reflected a change in balancing needs during hydro weakness, with coal and lignite providing additional output while gas generation declined.
Coal expansion led by Türkiye, with Italy and Serbia also higher
Türkiye led the coal expansion with an additional 260.6 GWh. Italy added 81.2 GWh, while Serbia increased by 66.0 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania also recorded increases in coal and lignite output during Week 24.
The resulting dispatch pattern became more coal-intensive across the region, even as stronger wind and solar output helped keep wholesale prices under pressure.
Implications for spot power and emissions reporting
The week’s market outcome combined lower spot prices in several markets with higher coal and lignite usage due to reduced hydro availability. For industrial power buyers focused on carbon exposure and emissions reporting, this link affects how electricity mix changes alongside pricing.
The generation mix indicates that summer operations depend on hydropower variability for determining how much thermal generation is needed during peak and evening hours.
Coal and lignite remained part of SEE price formation, acting as marginal resources when hydro output underperforms.