The Southeast European day-ahead electricity market tightened for delivery on 16 July, with higher baseload prices recorded across most exchanges. The most expensive hours shifted further into the evening period as solar output continued to suppress the traditional daytime peak. Elevated cooling demand, weaker net imports and limited flexibility during the sunset ramp affected Serbia, Hungary and parts of the Western Balkans.
Day-ahead price levels and regional convergence
On HUPX, the day-ahead baseload settlement reached €161.97/MWh, up by €10.90/MWh, while SEEPEX rose by €21.00/MWh to €160.38/MWh. Serbia traded only €1.59/MWh below Hungary. Austria settled at €161.01/MWh, Slovenia at €160.45/MWh and Germany at €159.86/MWh, extending the price pressure into the wider Central European market area.
Repricing was stronger further south, with ALPEX increasing by €57.10/MWh to €169.58/MWh. Albania became the most expensive market in the region, trading €7.61/MWh above HUPX. North Macedonia increased by €33.00/MWh to €158.76/MWh, while Montenegro gained €28.10/MWh to reach €154.66/MWh.
Croatia eased slightly to €156.47/MWh and Romania rose by €5.30/MWh to €155.30/MWh. Bulgaria increased by €4.30/MWh to €145.94/MWh and Greece rose by €5.80/MWh to €142.24/MWh. Greece remained the cheapest observed Southeast European exchange, at a discount of €19.74/MWh versus Hungary, followed by Bulgaria at a €16.03/MWh discount.
Italy stayed the highest-priced large neighbouring market at €170.47/MWh, maintaining an €8.50/MWh premium over HUPX.
Demand outlook, temperatures and import changes
Forecast regional electricity consumption increased by 1,092 MW, or about 3.3%, reaching an average of 34,233 MW. The largest rise came from Romania and Bulgaria, where combined demand grew by 657 MW to 9,919 MW. Greek consumption increased by 390 MW to 7,776 MW, while Slovenia and Croatia added 133 MW to reach 10,033 MW.
Hungary was the only major exception, with consumption declining by 201 MW to 4,872 MW. The reduction was not enough to offset broader regional demand growth as temperatures remained elevated across the region.
Cooling demand was concentrated in southern markets, with forecast temperatures reaching 29.2°C in Greece, around 28.5°C in Albania and 30.2°C in Montenegro.
Net regional imports fell from 871 MW to 710 MW, a decline of 161 MW despite consumption rising by more than 1 GW. Imports from the core European market area through Austria and Slovakia dropped by 306 MW to 1,593 MW. Overall, stronger demand combined with weaker external supply removed about 1.25 GW of effective system flexibility compared with the previous day.
Cross-border flows and supply anchors
Hungary remained a net importer with average imports of 881 MW, followed by Croatia at 1,112 MW, Romania at 597 MW and Serbia at 293 MW. By contrast, Bulgaria exported about 1,448 MW, while Greece exported around 1,016 MW.
Bulgaria exported roughly 767 MW to Romania and more than 290 MW to Serbia under commercial schedules. Romania supplied Hungary with approximately 239 MW during baseload hours and 442 MW during peak periods.
At the same time, Hungary exported about 564 MW during baseload hours and 713 MW during peak periods towards Croatia, forming a flow chain from Bulgaria and Romania through Hungary into Croatia’s tighter market conditions.
Southern corridor constraints reflected in flows
In the southern corridor, electricity flows pointed to Albania’s constrained position within regional schedules. Greece supplied Albania during both baseload and peak periods, while Albania also supplied Montenegro.
North Macedonia relied on electricity flows from Greece but exported towards Serbia and Kosovo.
The flow patterns aligned with Albania’s high daily pricing outcome and its baseload settlement of €169.58/MWh.
Intraday price profile across exchanges
The daily price profile showed off-peak averages above peak averages across most Southeast European exchanges because traditional peak periods included solar-heavy daytime hours while excluding part of the late-evening scarcity window.
On HUPX, the peak average stood at €137.80/MWh versus an off-peak average of €186.10/MWh, producing an inversion of €48.30/MWh. Prices reached a minimum of €96.10/MWh at hour 11 before rising sharply to €303.30/MWh at hour 21 for an intraday spread of €207.20/MWh.
Serbia showed a stronger evening ramp on SEEPEX, with a minimum of €106.00/MWh at hour 12 and a maximum of €340.00/MWh at hour 21 for an intraday spread of €234.00/MWh. Serbia’s off-peak average was €178.40/MWh compared with a peak average of €142.30/MWh.
Albania recorded the highest volatility, dropping to €64.10/MWh at hour 14 before reaching €380.00/MWh at hour 21 on SEEPEX-linked pricing data provided for the exchange set described here. The maximum spread reached €315.90/MWh, with off-peak averaging €215.20/MWh against only €124.00/MWh during peak hours.
Range of hourly prices: Romania, Greece, Bulgaria and Montenegro
Romania’s intraday spread was €230.30/MWh**, moving between €72.40/MWh and €302.70/MWh.
Greece ranged from €11.90/MWh to €230.00/MWh**, while Bulgaria moved between €70.20/MWh and €230.00/MWh.