Southeast European power markets saw a sharp rise in prices as temperatures lifted electricity demand, weaker wind generation reduced supply flexibility, and the evening ramp highlighted constraints in transmission capacity and flexible generation. The HUPX market increased by €17.3/MWh to €151.07/MWh, with movements uneven across the region. Prices reached €161.42/MWh in Slovenia, €157.15/MWh in Croatia and €150.05/MWh in Romania, while Albania stayed lower at €112.50/MWh.
The regional baseload spread widened to €53.41/MWh, measured between Italy at €165.91/MWh and Albania. Hourly price differences moved more than average daily levels, with the evening peak showing higher values across several markets. At H20, Slovenia reached €372.60/MWh, Croatia €340.40/MWh, Romania €287.80/MWh and Hungary €275.80/MWh.
Midday prices were much lower, falling to €30.50/MWh in Greece at H13, while Albania was €49.20/MWh, Bulgaria €51.00/MWh and Hungary €90.10/MWh. The same delivery day therefore showed contrasting operating conditions between daytime supply supported by solar generation and tighter conditions after photovoltaic output declined. The widening gap between daytime and evening prices pointed to higher value for flexibility-related resources.
Baseload premiums and intraday spreads in Hungary and neighbouring markets
Hungary’s baseload premium versus Germany widened by €4.9/MWh to €14.65/MWh, while HUPX traded €14.68/MWh above Greece, €11.68/MWh above Serbia, €24.48/MWh above Montenegro and €38.57/MWh above Albania.
Peak and off-peak patterns differed within Hungary’s pricing structure. Hungary’s peakload price reached €136.50/MWh compared with Germany at €109.10/MWh, producing a peak-period premium of €27.40/MWh. Off-peak prices were close at €165.60/MWh in Hungary versus €163.70/MWh in Germany.
HUPX also showed large intraday movement, rising from €90.10/MWh at H13 to €275.80/MWh at H20 for an intraday spread of €185.70/MWh. Similar volatility appeared in the western part of the region, where Slovenia recorded an hourly spread of €274.70/MWh and Croatia €243.20/MWh.
Italy remained the most expensive baseload market at €165.91/MWh, but its hourly volatility was comparatively smaller, ranging between €142.40/MWh and €198.30/MWh.
Demand rise with warmer weather; solar up and wind down
Regional electricity consumption increased by about 1,540 MW or 4.8% to 33,397 MW, supported by warmer weather with average temperatures around 25.7°C and stronger cooling demand.
The largest demand increase came from Romania and Bulgaria, where combined consumption rose by 839 MW to 9,690 MW. Greece added 307 MW to reach 7,503 MW, while Slovenia and Croatia together increased demand by 363 MW to 9,804 MW; Hungary stayed stable at 4,878 MW.
Forecast solar generation rose by 450 MW to 7,574 MW while wind output declined by 249 MW to 1,816 MW. Solar output improved daytime supply conditions but did not remove the evening flexibility challenge as wind production fell further during the ramp after solar output declined.
Total regional generation increased by about 1,248 MW to 32,547 MW, slightly below consumption growth. Net imports rose by 292 MW to 850 MW, increasing by more than 50% versus the previous day as inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia supported balancing.
Import dependence shapes flows across Hungary and Croatia
The daily balance indicated adequate overall energy availability despite severe hourly price spikes, with the main issue tied to timing and location of flexible capacity rather than total electricity availability.
Hungary’s electricity balance weakened even with stable demand: consumption increased slightly to 4,878 MW while domestic generation fell by 320 MW to 3,692 MW, lifting net imports from 824 MW to 1,185 MW.
Hungary received average scheduled inflows of about 1,073 MW from Slovakia, 796 MW from Romania, 256 MW from Serbia and 136 MW from Austria. It supplied around 646 MW to Croatia and 466 MW to Slovenia while continuing as both a major importing market and a transit hub.
Croatia remained the largest net importer at 1,222 MW as consumption rose to 2,537 MW while domestic generation reached only 1,315 MW. Average scheduled imports included approximately 646 MW from Hungary, 426 MW from Slovenia, 63 MW from Serbia and 88 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Slovenia recorded net imports of 329 MW relying heavily on cross-border flows from Austria and Hungary while supplying electricity toward Croatia and Italy.
Bulgaria exports; Greece increases outward flows
Bulgaria stayed the largest net exporter at 1,372 MW. Consumption increased by 678 MW to 3,862 MW while generation rose by 652 MW to 5,234 MW.
Bulgaria supplied about 1,307 MW to Romania, 289 MW to Serbia and 181 MW to North Macedonia while receiving electricity from Greece and Turkey as it continued acting as a redistribution point between Southeast European markets.
Greece increased its export position from 568 MW to 769 MW, with generation growth exceeding demand growth. It exported toward Bulgaria, Albania, North Macedonia and Italy as part of its role as a regional energy gateway.
The Greek market showed a solar-driven price curve that fell to €30.50/MWh at H13 before rising to €196.70/MWh at H22.
Romania shifts into net imports; Serbia reduces import needs
Romania remained central in regional flows: despite exports toward Hungary continuing, it moved from a small net export position into net imports as domestic demand increased and generation declined with strong imports from Bulgaria helping balance the system.
Serbia recorded the largest daily baseload price increase among monitored markets on SEEPEX rising by €31.2/MWh to €139.39/MWh as the price gap between Serbia and Hungary narrowed significantly.
Serbia’s consumption increased to 3,620 MW, while generation rose more strongly to 3,352 MW, reducing net imports from 489 MW to 269 MW. It increased exports toward Hungary during peak hours while continuing imports from Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Romania.
The later Serbian peak was reflected in SEEPEX moving from €80.50/MWh at H13 to €215.00/MWh at H22.
Tighter balances in Montenegro and North Macedonia; Albania remains lower-priced
Montenegro’s BELEN price increased by €22.6/MWh to €126.59/MWh as domestic generation declined alongside higher import dependence. Consumption reached 442 MW, while generation fell to 291 MW, expanding net imports.
Despite its domestic deficit Montenegro continued significant transit flows toward Italy with prices ranging from €80.00/MWh at H12 to €200.00/MWh at H22.
North Macedonia moved from a small export position into net imports as demand increased and generation declined; its market price rose to €125.72/MWh. The price remained below Hungary while reflecting tighter regional conditions.
Albania remained an exception with stable generation slightly above consumption supporting a small export position while prices increased only modestly compared with other markets.
Gas higher; carbon higher; forward contracts lag spot volatility
Thermal market conditions became slightly more supportive as gas prices increased with CEGH gas rising to €54.44/MWh. EU carbon allowances climbed to €81.39/t, while coal prices softened slightly leaving gas and carbon as main marginal cost drivers.