Southeast Europe entered the last week of May with a split between softer Central and Balkan power prices and stronger pricing in Italy and Serbia. Most markets weakened as renewable availability and lower demand improved balances, while Italy and Serbia moved higher. The weekly average price range was exceptionally wide, from €4.03/MWh in Türkiye to €123.58/MWh in Italy. Greece stayed relatively stable at €86.77/MWh, down 0.7% week-on-week.
Bulgaria fell 11.3%, Romania rose 5.1%, Croatia declined 5.5%, and Hungary eased 3.6% over the week. Serbia was the main bullish exception, with its weekly average jumping 30.1% to €105.71/MWh. Türkiye was the extreme outlier, with prices collapsing by more than 73% to just €4.03/MWh. The week’s daily price pattern showed most markets peaking around Tuesday and Wednesday, 27–28 May, while Monday, 25 May generally saw the lowest levels.
Italy premium and Serbia rise alongside wider regional dispersion
Italy remained the premium market in the region, with its average price rising 6.3% to €123.58/MWh. The increase was supported by weaker wind output and higher thermal generation. Serbia’s move to €105.71/MWh placed it among the more expensive SEE markets despite broadly stable imports.
By 3 June, day-ahead prices across SEE were again trending upward, ranging from €85.72/MWh in Greece to €118.10/MWh in Slovenia. This followed the softer Week 22 balance reported for late May.
Demand changes shaped by Türkiye while other markets stayed steadier
Regional electricity demand declined on paper, falling 5.9% week-on-week from 14.9 TWh to 14.0 TWh. Türkiye accounted for most of the drop, with Turkish demand down 21.7%, equal to 1.38 TWh, exceeding the full regional decline.
Excluding Türkiye, SEE demand was broadly stable, with Italy adding 505 GWh (10.8%), Greece rising 3.8%, and Croatia increasing 6.2%. Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary recorded modest demand declines during the week.
Wind and solar shifts altered variable renewable generation mix
Variable renewable generation weakened overall, falling 10.1% from 3.74 TWh to 3.36 TWh due to underperformance from the wind fleet. Wind output dropped 30.0%, or 532 GWh, with the largest reductions in Italy, Türkiye and Romania.
Solar moved in the opposite direction, increasing 7.8% or 153 GWh as output rose in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece. Bulgaria’s variable renewable generation increased by 44.0%, almost entirely driven by solar, while Greece lifted total variable RES output by 9.3% to 653 GWh, supported by both wind and solar.
Hydropower declined mainly due to Türkiye; thermal output moved unevenly
Hydropower generation also declined, falling 10.2% from 3.98 TWh to 3.57 TWh, again mainly because of Türkiye where hydro output fell 19.2%, or 549 GWh. Outside Türkiye, hydro conditions were more supportive.
Italy’s hydro generation rose 26.5% to 696 GWh, Croatia surged 75.4%, and Greece increased hydro output by 12.1% to 97 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania recorded moderate hydro declines.
Thermal generation fell regionally by 8.5%, from 3.78 TWh to 3.46 TWh. Coal and lignite output declined by 10.9%, while gas-fired generation fell by 7.0%. Türkiye drove most of the thermal reduction with thermal generation down 41.4%, equal to 707 GWh, including a 70.6% fall in gas-fired output.
Bulgaria and Serbia reduced thermal production as well, while Greece and Romania raised thermal generation by 8.5% and 8.4%, largely through gas-fired plants. Italy’s thermal output rose by 32.6%, with gas generation up by 25.3%, reflecting compensation for weaker wind generation alongside higher imports during tight domestic balance periods.
Cross-border trade increased; Greece exported more while Italy imported heavily
Total cross-border electricity trade increased by 8.4% week-on-week to 1,117 GWh. Greece remained a major net exporter, with exports rising 35.7% to 241 GWh, supported by competitive generation and relatively stable domestic pricing.
Bulgaria improved its export position from 6 GWh to 61 GWh, while Türkiye almost tripled net exports to 95 GWh. Italy stayed the region’s dominant net importer as imports increased by 28.3% to more than 1.1 TWh.
Romania and Croatia increased net imports by 27.1% and 36.5%, respectively, while Hungary reduced imports by 18.7%. Serbia’s import position was broadly stable even as its market price rose during Week 22.
LNG inflows mixed; TTF eased but stayed elevated for power marginal costs
European gas prices softened but remained structurally elevated during the week assessed for power markets linked to gas costs. TTF futures averaged €46.56/MWh, down 6.7% week-on-week after peaking at €47.64/MWh on 26 May. The contract closed at €46/MWh on .
The decline reflected improved market sentiment, stable LNG inflows, comfortable storage injection and weaker short-term demand, while geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and global LNG balances kept a premium in European gas prices.
The one-month TTF forward traded at €49.200/MWh, equivalent to $16.77/MMBtu, at publication time.
LNG flows showed mixed dynamics across selected countries: Greece received 404.07 GWh, up 15.. Italy recorded , broadly stable with a % increase at . Croatia received , down % week-on-week at .
Countryspecific price moves: Greece steady lower; Bulgaria sharp drop; Serbia up strongly; Türkiye collapses
Greece remained among the more competitive SEE markets with a weekly average of €86.77/MWh, down marginally by
Bulgaria recorded the sharpest decline among EU SEE markets, falling
Bulgaria’s solar-led structure coincided with variable RES output rising
The weekly average for Romania fell
Hungary eased
The standout bullish move came from Serbia as its weekly average rose
Croatia declined