In calendar week 22 of 2026, Southeast Europe’s power system continued shifting away from conventional generation toward solar-led price formation. Average prices declined across most markets, while the generation mix became more polarized between record photovoltaic output and rapidly falling coal generation. The region is entering the summer period with signs that midday oversupply and evening scarcity are shaping market outcomes.
HUPX baseload averaged €105.20/MWh, down €3.94/MWh week-on-week, while German prices fell to €94.90/MWh. Serbian SEEPEX averaged €105.71/MWh, the highest level in the core SEE region, and Greece remained the lowest at €86.77/MWh. Italy North stayed structurally disconnected at €123.87/MWh, a premium of almost €19/MWh over Hungary.
Photovoltaic surge drives midday price weakness
CW22’s central feature was a surge in photovoltaic generation across Southeast Europe. Regional solar output reached a new record peak of 11,251 MW, up 1,590 MW from the previous week and more than 3 GW above the same week of 2025. Solar production increased in Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Hungary and Serbia.
The shift coincided with weaker daytime pricing and more frequent negative prices in Hungary. HUPX recorded 12 negative-price hours, compared with 15 hours the week before. Prosumer output also reduced measured grid demand as temperatures rose and cooling demand began to emerge.
Total regional consumption fell to the lowest level since May 2025 despite higher temperatures across the region. The report attributes this to rooftop solar suppressing grid consumption during daylight hours. Transmission system data shows an artificial demand reduction linked to solar output rather than weather-driven demand changes alone.
Coal output hits new lows as gas covers residual demand
Coal-fired generation reached a new historical low across Southeast Europe in CW22. Average regional coal output fell to 3,743 MW, down 505 MW week-on-week and almost 945 MW below the same period last year. The largest weekly decline occurred in Serbia, where coal generation dropped by 371 MW versus the previous week and by 585 MW year-on-year.
Serbia still accounted for about 40% of coal generation in Southeast Europe, but the trend is downward. The reduction reflects weaker demand, stronger solar production and operational limitations across lignite fleets. Coal’s declining role matters because it historically provided price support during evening peaks.
As coal output falls, markets increasingly rely on gas-fired generation after solar sunset. Gas-fired generation rose sharply to 3,608 MW, up 555 MW week-on-week and at its highest level since early April. Greece drove much of the increase, with Hungary and Romania also contributing.
EUA prices rise while hydropower weakens
A spring 2026 pattern is visible in CW22: solar increasingly determines midday pricing while gas sets evening pricing. The outcome is greater intraday volatility rather than consistently high or low prices across sessions. Austrian CEGH gas prices eased to €48.60/MWh.
EUA carbon prices moved higher to €78.83/tCO₂, their highest level since February. Higher EUA costs continue to raise thermal generation economics while solar remains advantaged during daylight hours. The same combination was reflected in price formation across multiple markets during CW22.
Hydropower performance was another notable feature of the week. Regional hydro generation declined to 6,412 MW, while Danube inflows were significantly below seasonal norms at about 53% under historical averages for this period. Weak hydro output was particularly reported in Serbia and Albania.
The report flags hydrology as a key summer risk for July and August. Lower reservoir levels combined with stronger cooling demand could increase dependence on gas-fired generation later in the season. Current exceptional solar performance is described as partially masking that risk at present.
Serbia’s import position worsens; Greece exports rise
The most significant country-specific development was a deterioration in Serbia’s power balance during CW22. Serbia recorded a net import position of approximately 1,228 MW, worsening by more than 600 MW week-on-week and ranking among the weakest levels ever recorded in the report. The drivers included lower coal generation, reduced hydro output and weaker wind production.
The Serbian generation mix during CW22 consisted of approximately 1,278 MW coal, 840 MW hydro, 170 MW solar, and 25 MW gas, with limited wind contribution reported separately. Domestic consumption stayed relatively stable at 3,268 MW. This resulted in increased import dependence for Serbia.
The report links Serbia’s rising exposure to regional price signals and cross-border congestion with its declining ability to maintain export capability during summer peaks. It notes that solar growth remains slower than in neighboring Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.
Greece, by contrast, strengthened its position over the same week. Greece achieved average net exports of 1,512 MW, among the highest levels ever recorded according to the report. Strong solar output, substantial gas-fired generation and improving transmission utilization supported aggressive exports despite rising domestic demand.
The report describes Greece’s role as increasingly central for balancing Southeast Europe’s system needs. With new interconnections, expanding renewable capacity and future storage projects referenced by the report, Greece is positioned as a regional exporter rather than a peripheral market.
Nuclear weakness persists; cross-border flows remain mixed
Nuclear generation remained unusually weak across the region during CW22. Regional nuclear output averaged only 3,098 MW, among the lowest levels ever recorded due to planned maintenance in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria plus several unplanned outages. Nuclear output was almost 1 GW lower than in the same week of 2025.
The report expects reactors returning gradually during the second half of summer could add baseload supply and place downward pressure on regional prices while reducing gas burn requirements later on.