Electricity day-ahead prices in Southeast Europe fell sharply for delivery on 3 June, with wind generation rebounding and cross-border imports rising from Central Europe. The combination of stronger renewable output and higher import volumes reduced supply concerns across the region. Prices moved lower across nearly every major market in the SEE-Hungary area.
In Hungary, the HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €116.31/MWh, down €5.6/MWh day on day. Romania’s OPCOM closed at €116.24/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX settled at €115.27/MWh. Western Balkans markets saw larger declines, with Serbia’s SEEPEX dropping to €108.04/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN fell to €106.26/MWh, and North Macedonia settled at €104.69/MWh. Greece remained the lowest-priced market at €85.72/MWh, trading at a discount of more than €30/MWh to Hungary. The price falls were broad across both central and southeastern systems.
Renewables strengthen as generation rises faster than demand
The decline in prices coincided with a substantial improvement in renewable generation across the region. Total SEE and Hungarian generation increased by almost 1.8 GW compared with the previous day, reaching 27.8 GW. Demand rose by a more modest 987 MW, to approximately 29 GW.
Wind was the main driver of the shift, increasing by 1.28 GW day on day to 2.49 GW. Solar generation also rose by 453 MW, lifting output to above 6 GW. Hydro output edged higher to reach 6.55 GW.
The renewed renewable availability changed the regional supply stack. Solar and hydro together accounted for nearly half of total generation, while wind’s contribution doubled versus the previous trading session. Gas-fired generation fell by almost 500 MW, consistent with weaker marginal thermal requirements as renewables increased.
Imports widen into SEE-Hungary and spreads encourage cross-border flows
Cross-border flows expand and Hungary-Germany differential widens
Cross-border trading also influenced outcomes, with net imports into the wider SEE-Hungary region rising sharply to 1,830 MW. This compared with only 232 MW a day earlier. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia exceeded 2.6 GW.
The spread between Hungary and Germany widened, reinforcing import incentives for western supply. The Hungarian-German day-ahead differential increased to €13.68/MWh, compared with almost flat levels on the previous day. Additional supply flowed through Hungary into neighbouring Southeast European systems.
Southeast European markets diverge, with Serbia and Greece showing distinct pricing patterns
Serbia benefited from stronger regional supply and import economics, according to market pricing levels on the day-ahead curve. On SEEPEX, prices traded more than €8/MWh below Hungary and roughly €10/MWh below Slovenia. Participants continued to associate Serbian pricing with regional flows rather than domestic conditions alone.
The Greek market showed a separate pattern tied to solar output, with abundant photovoltaic generation again decoupling prices from the rest of the region. On HENEX, Greece maintained a significant discount to neighbouring markets despite elevated temperatures. The midday profile was heavily depressed by solar output, while evening peaks were lower than earlier in the week.
Forward contracts point to tighter summer conditions; fuel markets remain supportive of costs
Toward later months, forward markets indicated expectations of tighter conditions during summer periods. Hungarian Week 24 contracts traded around €110/MWh, while Week 25 was at about €115/MWh. July baseload remained elevated at €123/MWh.
The pricing reflected expectations of weather-related demand increases, lower hydro availability, and potential stronger thermal marginality during peak summer periods. Fuel markets provided limited support for power prices in the same window, with Austrian CEGH gas trading at €49.19/MWh. EU carbon allowances stayed close to t close to €80/t.