On 19 June, the SEE power market showed a more clearly split structure, with northern and central European systems remaining tight while Southeast Europe saw stronger renewable output, particularly solar and wind. The change coincided with a pronounced divergence between Hungary and southern Balkan markets.
Spot prices diverge across Hungary and the Balkans
Hungary was the region’s highest-priced market at €115.75/MWh, despite a day-on-day decline of almost €18/MWh. Serbia was the only major market rising sharply, with SEEPEX reaching €111.05/MWh, up almost €32/MWh. Romania settled at €105.99/MWh, Slovenia at €105.52/MWh, and Croatia at €103.98/MWh.
Bulgaria and Greece remained significantly lower at €81.88/MWh and €76.84/MWh, respectively. The pricing pattern pointed to renewable generation weighing on southern-market prices, while congestion and localized balancing needs supported premiums in Serbia and Hungary.
Demand, generation and renewables’ share
Regional electricity consumption rose to approximately 30.2 GW, while total generation increased to about 30.6 GW. That shift moved the region from a significant importer to a modest net exporter. Wind output increased by more than 1.1 GW day-on-day, while solar generation rose by over 540 MW.
The generation mix comprised Solar 21%, Hydro 20%, Nuclear 17%, Coal 15%, Gas 14%, and Wind 9%. Renewables therefore accounted for roughly half of total regional generation, influencing intraday pricing behavior.
Hungary as price reference and forward curve signals
The Hungarian market continued to act as the principal price reference for the wider SEE region. The Hungary–Germany spread widened to €7.57/MWh, reversing a previously negative differential. Imports into Hungary from Austria and Slovakia shifted to positive territory, indicating renewed reliance on western flows during peak hours.
The forward curve remained notably higher than spot levels in much of SEE, with Week 26 Hungary baseload at €137.50/MWh. Week 27 was priced at €128.50/MWh, July 2026 at €119.00/MWh, and Calendar 2026 at €110.50/MWh.
Serbia’s higher pricing despite regional renewables
Serbia stood out as an outlier as most regional markets declined sharply while SEEPEX increased to €111/MWh. The Serbian market traded above Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro despite generally favorable renewable conditions across the region.
The developments cited for Serbia included reduced flexibility linked to slower approvals of new grid-connected renewable projects, higher balancing costs, greater dependence on imports during specific hours, and limited availability of new merchant renewable capacity. Together, these factors were described as supporting localized scarcity pricing in Serbia even with broader regional oversupply.
Cross-border commercial flows and fuel benchmarks
Commercial flow data indicated continued exports from Central Europe toward Southeast Europe. The largest average observed movements were Hungary → Austria at approximately 705 MW, Slovenia → Italy at about 692 MW, Hungary → Slovakia at roughly 601 MW, and Romania → Hungary at around 420 MW.
The flow pattern reflected Italy as the premium destination market when transmission capacity permits exports from Slovenia and neighboring systems. Fuel indicators remained consistent with lower electricity prices, with CEGH Austrian gas at €42.21/MWh and the Greece gas benchmark at €40.07/MWh.
Coal prices also continued declining, with API2 July 2026 at €110.5/t and Q3 2026 at €109.5/t. Carbon allowances were reported stable near EUA Dec-2026 at €80.01/t.
Batteries, data centers and shifting flexibility needs
Bulgaria commissioned a battery energy storage facility in Burgas with capacity of 602 MWh, developed by Solarpro and CATL. Romania commissioned a hybrid project combining 26 MW solar with a battery storage component of 10.67 MWh. Greece reported more than 4.5 GW of data center connection requests.
The bulletin framed these developments as part of a shift in regional market priorities as solar deployment moves beyond the primary challenge. Grid flexibility and storage were highlighted as critical bottlenecks, alongside data-center demand emerging as a major source of future electricity consumption.
Tight summer spreads for storage amid intraday volatility
The trading outlook described a summer pattern in which strong solar output suppresses midday prices across most markets while evening ramps remain expensive. Intraday volatility was reported elevated, supporting growing value for battery operators and flexible generation assets.
The outlook also noted that Hungary continued to function as the regional benchmark while Serbia increasingly behaved as a separate premium zone driven by local balancing dynamics rather than broader regional fundamentals. For late June into early July, rising renewable output, lower gas prices, stable carbon costs and moderate temperatures were cited alongside attractive evening peak spreads for storage operators.