Wind and solar rise while demand increases
Week 24 in Southeast Europe showed a market balance shaped by higher variable renewable output alongside rising electricity consumption. Variable renewables increased by 16.6% to 3.64 TWh, with wind up 28.1% to 1.40 TWh and solar rising 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. Electricity consumption climbed by 4.6% to 15.85 TWh. Day-ahead prices were capped in most SEE markets as renewable generation increased.
Hydropower declines, led by Türkiye and Bulgaria
Hydropower generation moved lower during the same period, reducing regional output to 3.70 TWh. Regional hydro fell by 7.5%, with Türkiye accounting for a 229 GWh reduction and Bulgaria contributing a 42.9 GWh drop. The change affected system flexibility because hydropower typically provides fast-response capacity for balancing intraday and evening demand swings.
Thermal generation increases as coal expands
Thermal plants increased output to compensate for the hydropower shortfall. Total thermal generation rose by 8.7% to 4.52 TWh. Coal and lignite increased by 24.4% to 2.14 TWh, while gas-fired generation fell by 2.4%. Türkiye, Italy and Serbia were identified as the main contributors to the rise in coal-based generation.
Price movements across Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Italy
The price outcomes corresponded to the mixed balance between renewables and thermal support during weaker hydro conditions. Serbia saw the largest decline, with prices falling to €78.22/MWh, followed by Bulgaria at €93.58/MWh and Croatia at €92.02/MWh. Italy remained higher at €123.17/MWh, with continued reliance on imports noted alongside stronger demand.