European TTF gas prices showed modest intraday movement during Week 02 of 2026, with the highest settlement recorded on January 7. Prices generally stabilized around €28/MWh as the week progressed. On the ICE market, February 2026 futures moved between −3.7% and +2.5%, producing a weekly average of €28.06/MWh. That figure was slightly below the previous week’s level, down 0.7%.
Trading began with a sharp fall on Monday, January 5, when prices dropped by −5.5% from the final session of Week 01. The move took the week’s lowest settlement to €27.399/MWh, which was −3.2% lower than Monday, December 29. After the opening decline, prices increased over subsequent sessions. The week’s high came on Wednesday, January 7, at €28.778/MWh.
The January 7 peak represented a 2.5% rise versus the prior day and was 2.2% higher than Wednesday, December 31. Early January featured unusually low temperatures across Northwest and Central Europe. Those conditions increased heating-related gas demand and supported storage withdrawals.
As cold spells intensified, EU gas inventories fell to roughly 54.9%. The level was below last year’s figure of 66.9% for the same period. The winter demand backdrop coincided with market concerns tied to LNG supply.
Winter demand and LNG supply risk shape TTF trading
Geopolitical developments also entered the market picture, with reports stating the US is considering military and cyber measures against Iran. That raised concerns about possible disruptions to global LNG flows. The potential impact is described as especially relevant for Europe due to its increased reliance on LNG.
The shift follows a reduction in Russian pipeline deliveries, with Europe’s LNG role expanding after pipeline volumes declined. In 2025, LNG imports surpassed pipeline imports for the first time, according to the figures cited in the report. As of mid-January, the one-month forward TTF contract traded at €32.320/MWh.
Yamal LNG exports to Europe amid planned Russian import bans
A report published on January 8, 2026 by German NGO Urgewald said Russia’s Yamal LNG terminal exported €7.2 billion ($8.4 billion) worth of LNG to Europe in 2025. The report was issued after EU countries agreed in December 2025 to ban Russian gas imports starting January 1, 2028. It also notes that LNG imports from Russia are scheduled to be prohibited at the start of 2027.
Even with those planned restrictions, Europe remains the largest destination for Russian LNG shipments in the cited data set. Urgewald reported that Yamal LNG accounts for nearly 15% of total EU LNG imports, citing Kpler data. France was identified as the leading recipient, taking 87 tanker deliveries totaling 6.3 million tonnes (Mt).
The same figures show that France received 41.7% of Yamal LNG shipments to Europe during the period covered by Urgewald’s analysis. TotalEnergies owns 20% of Yamal LNG and purchases 4 Mt annually under contracts extending until 2041. The report also details how Yamal LNG shipments depend on European port access.
Arc7 ice-breaking tankers and European shipping operators
The Yamal LNG supply chain relies on EU ports and ice-breaking Arc7 LNG tankers built for Arctic operations. Without access to those ports, shipments would require longer voyages to Asia, according to the account provided in the source facts. For Belgium in 2025, 58 ships delivered 4.2 Mt of LNG.
The same year saw 51 ships deliver 3.6 Mt to China. In France, Dunkirk and Montoir terminals received 6.3 Mt, carried via 87 shipments, making France the largest European importer in the dataset described.
Cited logistics are handled primarily by two European operators: Seapeak and Dynagas. Seapeak is based in the UK and owned by Stonepeak, transporting 37.3% of Yamal LNG shipments in 2025 data referenced here. Greece’s Dynagas handled 34.3%.
The Arc7 fleet referenced consists of 14 specialized ice-breaking LNG tankers, with 11 owned by Seapeak and Dynagas in the figures provided. The arrangement is described as supporting Arctic rotations and rapid turnaround aligned with European demand requirements.