Energy commodity markets in Europe recorded mixed and volatile price action during the third week of May, with Brent, TTF and EEX EU carbon allowances reacting to changing geopolitical expectations, supply outlooks and seasonal demand conditions. Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on ICE reached a weekly high of $112.10/bbl on Monday, May 18. Prices then declined steadily to a low of $102.58/bbl on Thursday, May 21.
A mild rebound followed on Friday, with Brent settling at $103.54/bbl. That closing level represented a 5.2% decline versus the previous week. The fall during the week was linked to expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, potential recovery in global supply and improved diplomatic signals between the United States and Iran. Those developments reduced concerns about disruptions in key transport routes including the Strait of Hormuz.
TTF natural gas corrects after early-week strength
TTF natural gas futures in Europe also moved with early strength followed by a corrective decline. Prices peaked on Tuesday, May 19 at €51.82/MWh, the highest level since early April. They then fell to a weekly low of €48.68/MWh on Friday, May 22.
The week ended with TTF down 3.0% compared with the previous Friday’s close. The decline was supported by reduced concerns over LNG supply disruptions. At the same time, higher temperatures weakened European gas demand, easing upward pricing pressure in the second half of the week.
EEX EU carbon allowances hold a slightly firmer tone
EU carbon allowance futures for the December 2026 contract on EEX showed a more stable pattern with a slightly bullish bias. Prices traded within a narrow range during the week. The contract dipped to €74.95/t on Thursday, May 21 before rebounding.
The rebound carried prices to a weekly high of €76.94/t on Friday, May 22. The settlement finished 1.7% higher than the previous week’s level. Despite short-term fluctuations, carbon prices remained supported by underlying market expectations and structural emissions demand.
AleaSoft reported that the third week of May reflected divergent behavior across major energy benchmarks, with oil and gas easing alongside improving supply sentiment and weaker demand signals. Carbon markets maintained resilience with a modest upward bias as trading progressed through the period.