In the third week of May, European electricity markets showed strong volatility, with daily prices reaching their highest point on Monday, May 18. Prices then eased gradually toward the end of the week. Weekly averages rose across most markets despite the intra-week correction. The Spanish, Portuguese and Nordic markets were the main exceptions, falling by 2.7%, 2.9% and 19%, respectively.
France recorded the largest weekly increase at 11%. Other markets posted gains ranging from 3.3% in Great Britain to 7.9% in Belgium. The pattern reflected differences in how gas price pressure, wind generation levels and demand conditions affected each market during the same period.
Weekly average levels above €75/MWh
Across the week of May 18, most European markets recorded average prices above €75/MWh. Tight system conditions were cited as a factor behind those higher weekly averages across the continent. Spain, Portugal and France were notable exceptions, with weekly averages of €48.48/MWh, €48.53/MWh and €48.94/MWh, respectively.
Italy and Great Britain were at the higher end of the range, with weekly averages of €116.31/MWh and €123.33/MWh. Other markets varied from €75.79/MWh in the Nordics to €105.42/MWh in Germany. The figures pointed to significant regional divergence in pricing outcomes for the week.
Daily dispersion peaks around May 18
Price dispersion was pronounced on a daily basis during the same week. On Sunday, May 24, several markets including Spain, France, the Nordics and Portugal traded below €30/MWh. The Nordics reached a weekly low of just €8.40/MWh, its weakest level since early April.
Central and Western European markets remained structurally tight more often, with Germany, Great Britain, Italy and the Netherlands frequently trading above €100/MWh throughout the week. The British market peaked on May 18 at €141.25/MWh. Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands also reached their highest daily levels since early April, exceeding €130/MWh each.
Gas prices and wind output drive weekly direction
The upward pressure on prices during the week was primarily linked to higher gas prices and weaker wind generation. Demand fluctuations added additional support in selected markets during the period. These factors contributed to stronger price levels across most European hubs even as some intraday corrections occurred intermittently.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting pointed to further price movement in parts of Western and Southern Europe for the fourth week of May. It indicated that prices could rise in France, Spain, Italy and Portugal, supported by lower wind output and higher demand conditions.
Fourth-week outlook for France, Germany and Iberia
The same outlook suggested a different direction for Germany during the fourth week of May. Prices may face downward pressure there due to weaker demand alongside stronger wind and solar generation. AleaSoft also noted that evolving gas price trends are expected to remain a key driver of overall European electricity market dynamics.