Southeast European electricity markets traded in mixed directions for Wednesday delivery, while Central European hubs maintained price support above €125/MWh. Greece and parts of the southern Balkans faced pressure from renewable generation and lower marginal costs. Regional demand rose, but falling solar and wind production tightened supply-demand balances and limited broader price declines.
Day-ahead settlements across SEE exchanges
On Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead market, prices settled at €126.90/MWh, down marginally from the previous session. Slovenia’s BSP exchange cleared at €127.60/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX closed at €127.45/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM followed at €125.04/MWh, reflecting integration with Central European fundamentals.
Serbia’s SEEPEX settled at €115.78/MWh, remaining below neighbouring EU markets but above southern Balkan exchanges. Greece recorded the region’s lowest day-ahead price on HENEX at €104.15/MWh. Bulgaria’s IBEX cleared at €112.15/MWh.
Tighter regional balance as renewables decline
The regional power balance tightened as electricity consumption increased to around 29.7 GW, up by 930 MW day-on-day. Total generation fell by nearly 1 GW, supporting wholesale price levels. Solar output decreased by 436 MW, while wind production declined by 322 MW.
Hydro generation softened slightly, but remained the region’s largest source alongside solar. Hydropower and solar each accounted for roughly 24% of regional electricity generation. Coal represented 16%, with gas and nuclear each at 15%.
Import flows and cross-border commercial patterns
Net imports made up only 2% of the overall supply mix, indicating continued internal balancing despite weaker renewable production. Total net imports into the SEE-Hungary region fell from 596 MW to 306 MW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary dropped from 1,819 MW to 1,098 MW.
Commercial flow data showed exports from Romania into Hungary continuing, along with strong Bulgarian exports toward Serbia and North Macedonia. Slovenian exports into Italy also persisted. The pattern placed Hungary as a central balancing hub as neighbouring markets responded to local renewable output and congestion dynamics.
Intraday volatility and peak-hour pricing
Intraday profiles across HUPX, SEEPEX, OPCOM and BSP showed pronounced solar-driven volatility. Prices weakened during midday hours before rising sharply during the evening ramp period. Peak prices were generally recorded around hour 21.
Around hour 21, reduced solar output combined with strong residential demand pushed prices toward €180-203/MWh across several markets. Midday troughs stayed substantially lower, widening daily spreads between midday and evening periods.
Forward commodities and weather outlook for late-week trading
Ahead in forward markets, Austrian CEGH gas eased to €50.28/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances fell to €76.15/t. German Week-25 power declined to €108.50/MWh, and Hungarian Week-25 contracts slipped to €113.00/MWh. The forward moves pointed to expectations of reduced spot pressure later in June.
Weather forecasts call for temperatures across Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovenia to decline materially during the second half of the week. Serbian temperatures are expected to fall from around 24°C to below 19°C. This would reduce cooling demand and potentially ease pressure on thermal generation and imports.
SERBIA market spread versus neighbouring hubs
For Serbia, SEEPEX traded around €11/MWh below HUPX and BSP. The spread maintained competitiveness against neighbouring markets while Serbia benefited from regional import opportunities from both Hungary and Bulgaria. Market structure supported cross-border optimisation and short-term balancing strategies rather than structural imports.
Toward later this week, market focus remained on whether renewable output recovers under the cooler forecast conditions. Softer gas prices and weaker carbon markets were cited alongside the persistence of evening scarcity premiums in the regional market structure. For battery storage operators and flexible generation assets, the widening gap between midday and evening prices continued to be a key feature of trading conditions across Southeast European electricity markets.