In Week 23, net imports across Southeast Europe rose 9.1% week on week to 1.22 TWh. Hungary recorded the biggest increase, with net imports up 64.7% to 179.75 GWh. Romania lifted imports by 34.0%, while Croatia increased imports by 18.5%. Italy remained the region’s largest importer at 950.91 GWh, despite cutting imports by 14.1%.
Import changes and regional flow shifts
The shift in cross-border flows occurred during a period of strong regional stress. Demand increased by 8.2%, while variable renewables fell by 8.9%. Wind output dropped 15.5%, and thermal generation rose 24.5%. Under these conditions, interconnectors were used as balancing tools.
Price spreads across key markets
Price spreads stayed wide enough to support trading activity across the region. Italy averaged €128.09/MWh, while Greece was at €89.25/MWh. Several Balkan markets clustered around €100/MWh. The spread between markets created trading opportunities for participants with access to capacity, forecasting tools and scheduling capability.
Beyond day-ahead arbitrage
Trading activity in the region extended beyond day-ahead arbitrage. It included intraday adjustments, congestion management, transmission rights, balancing positions and portfolio optimisation. As renewable generation expands, forecast errors and hourly price movements become more relevant for managing positions.
Export positions and constraints
Greece and Türkiye remained net exporters during Week 23, although exports declined. Their export positions can affect neighbouring markets when available capacity allows power to move into lower-priced areas. However, persistent price divergence indicates that physical constraints and market rules continue to limit full convergence between areas.
Operational requirements for market participants
For traders, optionality is a key element of value creation in cross-border trading conditions. Moving power from lower-priced nodes to higher-priced markets, and adjusting positions intraday when wind or solar forecasts change, can generate returns. For generators, export optionality supports realised revenue, while industrial buyers can use cross-border procurement to reduce cost exposure.
The role of data and forecasting systems is tied to operational needs in a volatile market environment. Participants require accurate renewable forecasts, demand models, interconnector capacity monitoring and price-spread analytics. Week 23 also highlighted that cross-border trading has become part of the region’s core market architecture as demand rises and renewables fluctuate.
Elevated by energy.clarion.engineer