Following the Sunday trough, most day-ahead prices in Southeast Europe and Central Europe moved sharply higher on Monday. HUPX increased to €91.89/MWh, up €31.9/MWh day on day. Romania cleared at €90.24/MWh, while Slovenia reached €87.85/MWh, Croatia €87.23/MWh, Greece €86.75/MWh, and Bulgaria €85.71/MWh.
The regional price floor remained in Serbia, where SEEPEX settled at €53.40/MWh. That level was still €38.49/MWh below HUPX, while the upper anchor was Italy at €130.02/MWh, or €38.13/MWh above HUPX. The market split into three pricing areas: a clustered HU/RO/BG/GR/SI/HR core, a discounted Western Balkans pocket led by Serbia, and a higher-priced Italian sink.
Load recovery and import changes shape Monday’s balance
The demand signal drove the move in day-ahead prices. Regional consumption rose to 28.944 GW, up 3.337 GW day on day, while total net imports fell to 1.652 GW, down 1.325 GW from Sunday. The higher load was therefore met partly through stronger internal generation and stronger solar output rather than a proportional increase in imports.
Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the HU/SI area remained substantial at 2.970 GW, but were lower by 1.159 GW. Exports toward Italy totaled 1.055 GW, with the direction linked to Italy’s much higher clearing price.
Solar forecast jumps while wind stays comparatively low
Solar conditions were the key intraday factor behind the shape of prices. The regional solar forecast increased to 7.296 GW, up 2.812 GW day on day, while wind was only 1.160 GW, up just 77 MW. This combination supported midday price compression and an evening scarcity profile.
On HUPX, the daily minimum occurred around the solar-heavy midday period, while the maximum shifted into the evening. Hungary’s spot profile showed a sharp rise after the daytime trough, highlighting that price risk is increasingly concentrated in the transition from solar surplus into evening residual demand.
Cross-border flows show uneven net positions across countries
The HU+SEE region remained a net importer by 1.652 GW, but the burden varied by country. Croatia was the largest importer at -1.141 GW, followed by Romania at -904 MW, Serbia at -418 MW, and Hungary at -269 MW. On exports, Bulgaria sent out 489 MW, while Greece exported 264 MW.
Borders also showed Albania positive in the detailed country data. The physical balance did not mirror the price map fully: Serbia was deeply discounted yet still import-dependent, pointing to congestion, local bidding structure and limited market coupling effects rather than a fully efficient regional price signal.
Serbia’s discounted pricing coexists with net imports and coal-heavy supply
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Bulgaria supports regional balancing while Croatia remains short of supply
Bulgaria provided regional balancing support with consumption of 3.807 GW. Generation reached 4.296 GW, alongside exports of 489 MW, with flows turning strongly toward Romania and Serbia in detailed border data.
Greece returned to net exports of 264 MW, with generation at 6.072 GW against consumption of 5.808 GW. Croatia remained structurally short: consumption was 1.939 GW, generation only 798 MW, and net imports were 1.141 GW.
Mondays’ spot rally does not lift forward prices uniformly; EUA stays flat
The forward market did not reprice in line with Monday’s day-ahead rally. Hungarian power forwards softened, with Week 25 at €107.50/MWh, Week 26 at €120/MWh, July 2026 at €119/MWh, and Cal-26 at €113/MWh; all were lower except the nearest HU-DE spread line.