Week 24 saw a regional shift in generation patterns across South East Europe alongside a general decline in day-ahead electricity prices across most markets. The change coincided with higher renewable output and a sharp drop in hydropower generation. In that context, coal and lignite increased their contribution to the supply mix.
Hydropower declines across SEE
Regional hydro production decreased by 300.2 GWh (-7.5%) to 3.70 TWh. Türkiye recorded the largest reduction, with hydro output down by 229 GWh. Bulgaria fell by 42.9 GWh, Greece by 17.3%, Serbia by 4.2%, Romania by 2.4%, and Italy by 2.2%.
Thermal generation covers the hydro shortfall
Thermal generation rose by 362.6 GWh (8.7%) to reach 4.52 TWh. The increase came entirely from coal and lignite, which added 420.6 GWh (24.4%) to total 2.14 TWh. Gas-fired generation declined by 58.0 GWh (-2.4%) to 2.38 TWh.
Coal expands in Türkiye, Italy and Serbia
Türkiye led the coal and lignite expansion with an additional 260.6 GWh. Italy followed with an increase of 81.2 GWh, while Serbia added 66.0 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania also recorded increases, contributing to a more coal-intensive dispatch structure.
Implications for wholesale prices and emissions reporting
The higher coal and lignite output occurred while stronger wind and solar generation helped keep wholesale prices under pressure. For industrial power buyers, lower spot prices did not translate into lower coal usage during Week 24, given the reduced hydro availability in several markets.
The generation mix indicates that hydropower variability will influence how much thermal capacity is needed during peak and evening hours as summer demand increases. Coal and lignite remained part of regional price formation when hydro output underperformed.