Trading on 30 June 2026 showed a scarcity-driven repricing across the northern and central Southeast Europe corridor. HUPX was at €290.71/MWh, up €68/MWh day on day, while Romania’s OPCOM cleared at €293.44/MWh, up €69.9/MWh. Romania was the highest-priced market in the monitored set, with Serbia also moving higher as SEEPEX reached €250.98/MWh, up €101/MWh.
Prices in Croatia and Slovenia cleared close to Hungary at €263.03/MWh and €262.05/MWh respectively. The regional price split remained wide, with Albania at €116.33/MWh, Greece at €137.72/MWh, Bulgaria at €148.44/MWh, North Macedonia at €148.05/MWh, and Montenegro at €157.14/MWh. The gap left Hungary trading more than €142/MWh above Bulgaria and almost €153/MWh above Greece.
Demand growth and deeper net imports in HU+SEE
Regional HU+SEE consumption rose to 35,949 MW on 30 June, up 1,175 MW from the previous day. The system’s net import position deepened to 2,859 MW, increasing by 1,023 MW. Imports from the Core direction, mainly AT+SK into HU+SI, reached 2,946 MW.
The HU-DE spot spread widened to €103.38/MWh during the session. This indicated that scarcity conditions in Hungary were more pronounced than the German market signal.
Evening ramp drives hourly maxima across markets
The hourly pattern showed the highest prices concentrated in the evening ramp rather than during the solar-heavy midday period. Hungary’s HUPX reached a maximum of €923.10/MWh at H21. Romania recorded €954.60/MWh at H21, while Croatia cleared at €946.60/MWh.
Slovenia’s maximum was higher at €1,041.50/MWh at H21, and Serbia reached €800/MWh. In Hungary, off-peak cleared at €320.80/MWh compared with a peak average of €260.60/MWh.
The same structure appeared across several markets where off-peak averages were higher than peak averages due to scarcity hours outside the standard peak block. The data also pointed to a summer ramp dynamic where solar supports midday balance but post-solar hours become exposed to import limits and cross-border congestion.
Country balances show structural shortfalls in HU, RO and HR
Balance data placed the tightest conditions in several northern and central markets. Hungary was the largest importer at 1,841 MW, with consumption at 5,819 MW and domestic generation of 3,977 MW.
Romania also showed a structural shortfall with consumption of 6,605 MW against generation of 5,225 MW and net imports of 1,380 MW. Croatia imported 1,336 MW versus consumption of 2,814 MW and generation of 1,478 MW.
Serbia imported 697 MW with consumption at 4,046 MW and generation of 3,348 MW. These balance figures aligned with SEEPEX moving sharply even though Serbia’s absolute price remained below Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Slovenia.
Greece exports northward while Bulgaria acts as transit
The southern side of the system was characterised by exports from Greece and transit flows through Bulgaria. Greece exported 1,620 MW with consumption of 7,425 MW and generation of 9,045 MW.
On the prior-day detailed balance line, Greece’s production stack included 2,837 MW of gas plus 2,880 MW of solar and 2,219 MW of wind output. Greece cleared at a comparatively low price of €137.72/MWh while exporting northward through Bulgaria into Albania, North Macedonia and Italy.
Bulgaria exported 801 MW and cleared at €148.44/MWh as a regional transit market. The data showed a very large BG > RO flow of 1,855 MW alongside Bulgaria simultaneously absorbing power on the GR > BG direction.
Serbia price level tied to net imports and evening conditions
SEEPEX in Serbia was at €250.98/MWh on 30 June 2026 after rising by €101/MWh day on day. The level was above Greece (€137.72/MWh), Bulgaria (€148.44/MWh), Montenegro (€157.14/MWh), Albania (€116.33/MWh) and North Macedonia (€148.05/MWh).
At the same time it remained below Hungary (€290.71/MWh), Romania (€293.44/MWh), Croatia (€263.03/MWh) and Slovenia (€262.05/MWh). Serbia’s net import position was 697 MW and its evening maximum was €800/MWh.
The corridor signals included negative flows toward Bosnia, Croatia, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro on a net basis. Serbia retained limited export direction toward Hungary and Romania in some blocks.
Hungary forward spreads widen; carbon falls while gas rises
Forward market pricing showed that Hungarian risk premia extended beyond day-ahead trading on the date in question. HU Week 29 rose to €144/MWh up from the previous day by €20/MWh.
HU July 2026 increased to €135/MWh up by €12.5/MWh day on day as well; the HU-DE July spread reached €30/MWh and the HU-DE Week 29 spread reached €27.5/MWh.
Longer-dated products were comparatively calmer with HU Cal-27 at €111/MWh. Fuel-linked moves included CEGH gas rising to €43.95/MWh and Greek gas to €43.84/MWh while coal forwards moved higher; however EUA fell to €78.78 down by €1.5/MWh day on day.
Weather outlook points to easing temperatures after 1 July
The next trading signal depended on whether forecast cooling materialises across the region following the heatwave period reflected in demand levels on 30 June. Weather tables showed SEE+HU average temperatures excluding Greece easing from around 29.0°C on 30 June to 26.2°C on 1 July.
The same tables indicated temperatures near 22.7°C afterwards for SEE+HU average excluding Greece while Hungary fell from 31.1°C to 27.7°C before reaching near 22°C later in the sequence shown for early July.
If structural short positions persisted in Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Serbia while solar output ramps down into hours H20-H22, evening premium conditions could remain elevated despite lower average temperatures in the forecast period provided.