During the week of 29 June–5 July, Romania and Hungary recorded the highest average day-ahead electricity prices in Southeast Europe. Romania averaged EUR 164.31/MWh, while Hungary averaged EUR 162.04/MWh. Croatia followed with an average of EUR 142.57/MWh, and Serbia posted average prices up 26.3% to EUR 139.93/MWh.
Serbia shifts from near-balance to higher import volumes
Serbia showed the clearest short-term change in cross-border positioning after moving from a marginal net import of 7 GWh in Week 26 to 90 GWh in Week 27. The increase in imports coincided with a sharp decline in thermal generation. This drop followed the absence of lignite-fired output during the week.
The resulting generation mix left Serbia more dependent on regional electricity imports and cross-border market conditions. With thermal output lower, import flows became a key factor for meeting demand during the period. The shift also aligned with higher regional price levels reported across multiple markets.
Price levels and corridor flows focus trading activity
The Romania–Hungary–Serbia–Croatia corridor emerged as a central trading focus as elevated prices coincided with stronger import demand and tighter domestic supply. The week’s data showed higher wholesale price conditions alongside increased cross-border requirements. These dynamics were highlighted as continuing to shape market conditions during periods of system stress.
Greece and Bulgaria remained among the lowest-priced markets in Southeast Europe, averaging EUR 112.81/MWh and EUR 114.61/MWh, respectively. Both markets stayed above the EUR 100/MWh level throughout the week. Italy was the only major regional market to decline, with average prices down 6.8% to EUR 134.85/MWh.
Evening peak hours remain the main stress window
Trading conditions pointed to opportunities concentrated in evening peak hours rather than outright baseload positions. Market data indicated that the main stress window falls between 19:00 and 22:00. During this period, solar generation declines quickly, increasing reliance on dispatchable thermal generation and imported electricity.
This timing was linked to tighter system conditions as demand remains supported by reduced variable renewable output. The same window also aligns with greater sensitivity to cross-border supply availability. As a result, price signals in that timeframe were described as particularly relevant for short-term trading.
Cross-border net imports rise across Southeast Europe
Total SEE net imports increased by 28.2%, moving from 972 GWh to 1.25 TWh. Hungary’s net imports surged by 157.9% to 202 GWh, while Romania’s imports rose by 44.8% to 194 GWh. Serbia’s import needs also expanded significantly over the same period.
Although Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters, their export surpluses narrowed during the week. The change in balances contributed to a tighter regional supply picture across multiple borders. These flow shifts were presented alongside higher day-ahead price levels in several markets.
Gas price signals and thermal generation support peak power levels
TTF gas futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% from the previous week, before rising above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the reporting period. The one-month TTF contract traded near EUR 49.045/MWh. Alongside this, thermal power generation across Southeast Europe increased by 6.5% on a weekly basis.
The combination of firmer gas prices and higher thermal generation was described as having potential to strengthen peak electricity prices during periods when systems rely more heavily on dispatchable output and imports.
Southeast Europe monitoring points for traders into subsequent sessions
The next set of observations for traders includes regional price spreads between Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia, alongside evening peak pricing patterns between 19:00 and 22:00. Monitoring also covers cross-border import flows and changes in wind and hydro generation at short notice.
The focus extends to developments in gas markets including both TTF and THE. Unless cooler weather, stronger renewable output, improved hydro conditions or a recovery in Serbian thermal generation reduces import dependence, near-term peak power price conditions were described as remaining supportive for Southeast Europe.