South-East Europe and Hungary’s day-ahead electricity markets opened the new trading week on 18 May with a sharp rebound in prices. The move was linked to lower wind generation, tighter regional import balances and stronger weekday demand recovery after the weekend.
Day-ahead price jump and regional convergence
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price rose to €143.22/MWh, up more than €55/MWh from the previous day. Romania’s OPCOM closed at €143.19/MWh, Croatia’s CROPEX at €143.24/MWh, and Slovenia’s BSP at €143.18/MWh.
The same session showed renewed price convergence across Central and South-East Europe. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained structurally decoupled at €82.27/MWh, while Albania traded at €61.67/MWh and Montenegro at €84.19/MWh, both materially below core regional hubs.
Wind collapse, solar support, and evening peak pricing
The main driver was a collapse in regional wind output. Forecast wind generation across the SEE system fell by approximately 1,029 MW day-on-day to around 1,651 MW.
Solar generation partially offset the wind decline, increasing by nearly 978 MW. The generation balance shifted back toward thermal and imported marginal pricing during evening peak hours, with daily maxima above €250/MWh recorded around hour 21 across most exchanges.
Demand rebound and reduced net imports
Regional consumption rebounded after the weekend as forecast demand for SEE plus Hungary climbed to roughly 27.9 GW. That represented an increase of more than 1.7 GW day-on-day alongside higher temperatures across the region.
The demand normalization coincided with a contraction in net regional imports. Net imports fell to only -80 MW, compared with over 1.5 GW one day earlier, tightening local pricing structures as cheaper core European inflows declined.
Hydrology support and utility earnings in Q1 2026
Total hydro generation stayed elevated at roughly 6.3 GW, representing around 25% of the overall generation mix. Danube flow levels remained significantly above long-term averages near 6,848 m³/s, supporting hydropower performance in Romania and the wider Balkan system.
This backdrop aligns with strong Q1 results reported by hydro-dominated utilities including Romania’s Hidroelectrica and Montenegro’s EPCG. Romania’s Q1 2026 electricity production rose by 8.8%, with hydropower up 38.3% and wind output up 18% year-on-year.
Hidroelectrica’s net profit more than doubled to approximately €263 million. Montenegro’s EPCG reported Q1 net profit of €36.5 million, compared with €10.2 million a year earlier, supported by hydrology and increased thermal production at Pljevlja.
Forward prices, carbon costs, and gas corridor talks
The futures curve indicated expectations of structurally elevated power pricing into summer despite renewable expansion. Hungarian Week 21 baseload forwards traded around €118.5/MWh, while June 2026 contracts remained above €113/MWh.
EUA carbon prices stabilized around €75.6/tCO₂, supporting coal and gas marginal pricing economics across the SEE region. Gas prices on CEGH were around €50.67/MWh.
The Vertical Gas Corridor remains a focus for regional positioning as Greece, Serbia, North Macedonia and Bulgaria advanced discussions on expanding the corridor deeper into the Western Balkans. The developments reinforce South-East Europe’s role as a future gas and electricity transit hub.
BESS projects, thermal balancing share, and market fragmentation signals
Divergence between fully coupled EU exchanges and partially isolated SEE markets persisted in spreads between Serbia and Hungary on the same delivery day. SEEPEX stayed roughly €60/MWh below HUPX again, reflecting differences in local balancing conditions, generation mix and cross-border congestion.
Battery storage economics were highlighted through an Albania project combining solar and storage: planned 160 MW solar with a 60 MW battery backed by potential EBRD financing. The evening ramp between collapsing solar output and weakened wind generation is producing high-value peak spreads across SEE markets during hour 20–22 windows visible on HUPX, OPCOM and BSP intraday profiles.
Thermal generation remained embedded in regional balancing structures despite strong hydro and solar conditions on 18 May. Coal and gas represented approximately 28% of total SEE plus Hungary generation.
The closure of Greece’s 1,595 MW Agios Dimitrios lignite plant was also cited as affecting regional dependence on gas, interconnections and flexible balancing capacity.
The broader market picture pointed to a shift toward higher hourly volatility in SEE power pricing shaped by hydrology levels, solar output patterns, evening peak scarcity, cross-border congestion and CBAM-linked low-carbon electricity demand. Daily averages were described as less relevant than hourly volatility structures for traders, BESS operators and industrial consumers exposed to intraday balancing costs.